MMA Prophecy
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UFC on ESPN: Nicolau vs. Perez
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Perez v Nicolau Flyweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus57 picks · conf 72/99
Perez 16
41 Nicolau
DMTPBV pick Perez
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Perez 26-10 VS 19-6-1 Nicolau
5'6" height 5'6"
128 lb weight 125 lb
65" reach 66"
34 age 33
Orthodox stance Orthodox
4.2 strikes landed / min 3.3
46% striking accuracy 51%
3.2 strikes absorbed / min 3.0
58% striking defence 65%
2.0 takedowns / 15 min 1.2
46% takedown accuracy 43%
77% takedown defence 90%
0.8 submissions / 15 min 0.8
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only Go Pro →
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
MM Mmajessic picks Matheus Nicolau “I feel like Matheus Nicolau is going to absolutely outclass Alex Perez tomorrow night”
MA MMA Attic picks Alex Perez VALUE “so we laid a wager” $2.49
UP UFC FIGHT PASS picks Alex Perez “what a reception for Alex Perez”
WA Warlike picks Matheus Nicolau VALUE “I like Matheus Matheus Nicolauu over five rounds”
LJ Lucrative James picks Alex Perez VALUE “I'll pick Alex Alex Perez for that reason”
TH TheGreyFaction picks Matheus Nicolau “Matheus Matheus Nicolauu get doing how I don't know probably submission win but he's even he has five knockout wins and five submission wins so could be either one of those so n by over a submission or knockout a finish maybe in a fourth round”
MJ MMA Junkie picks Alex Perez “I'm going to go with with 13 hands”
WP We Want Picks picks Matheus Nicolau “I'm going to be on the Nicola side”
MN Mayo Media Network picks Matheus Nicolau VALUE “the majority of ownership will go to Matheus Nicolau Denise Ryan span Etc”
RM Rare MMA picks Matheus Nicolau VALUE “Matheus Matheus Nicolauu by a pretty easy judges decision”
RA Ringside Report Network - Combat Sports Authority picks Alex Perez VALUE “I'm gonna go with Matas Nicola man Alex Perez is on a three-fight losing streak... so Matas Nicola” $1.56
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Matheus Nicolau “the pick for me is going to be Maas Matheus Nicolau”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Perez26-10
W Johnson KO/TKO · R1 Jan '26
L Almabayev Submission · R3 Nov '25
L Taira KO/TKO · R2 Jun '24
W Nicolau KO/TKO · R2 Apr '24
L Mokaev Decision · R3 Mar '24
Nicolau19-6-1
L Almabayev Decision · R3 Oct '24
L Perez KO/TKO · R2 Apr '24
L Royval KO/TKO · R1 Apr '23
W Schnell KO/TKO · R2 Dec '22
W Dvořák Decision · R3 Mar '22