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UFC on ESPN: Nicolau vs. Perez
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Padilla v Llontop Catchweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus21 picks · conf 44/99
Padilla 6
15 Llontop
THmMUR pick Padilla
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Padilla 0-0 VS 14-5 Llontop
5'9" height 6'0"
155 lb weight 166 lb
74" reach 73"
30 age 26
Orthodox stance Orthodox
5.8 strikes landed / min 5.6
61% striking accuracy 41%
4.9 strikes absorbed / min 4.1
46% striking defence 57%
3.3 takedowns / 15 min 0.0
75% takedown accuracy 0%
0% takedown defence 54%
1.1 submissions / 15 min 0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TP The City Life Project picks Chris Padilla “we're going with James LlJames LlontopJames LlJames Llontoptop huge favorite James Llontop this James Llontope”
WA Warlike picks James Llontop VALUE “I think my money is on James Llontop here by knockout”
MM Magnusisp MMA picks Chris Padilla “um I'm going to go with James Lon toop um just because I don't know bro like I don't know he seems like a prospect”
WP We Want Picks picks James Llontop VALUE “I think James wins”
LF Liam Picks Fights picks Chris Padilla “N/A”
MO monkeykingbets picks Chris Padilla “I have Chris Padilla winning this fight”
ZP Zlatan's Fight Picks picks James Llontop “James Longtoop should be the pick” $1.21
KU Kunath picks James Llontop “James Llontop over a very short notice UFC debutant replacement Chris Padilla”
LI LimpyMMA picks James Llontop “I am going to go with him in this matchup”
IL illguided picks James Llontop “I just think he's overall more well-rounded and Edge a decision out on this one”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks James Llontop VALUE “I think Yab looks good the power looks good he's a young guy he's only going to be improving he's a big guy going to be the bigger fighter in this matchup against Chris Padilla” $83.00
HB Half The Battle picks James Llontop “as a pure pick I got to go Lop here” $1.25
Recent form last five, most recent first
Padilla0-0
W Bonfim KO/TKO · R2 Nov '25
W Herbert Decision · R3 Mar '25
W Zhu KO/TKO · R2 Sep '24
W Llontop Submission · R1 Apr '24
Llontop14-5
L Ruffy Decision · R3 Nov '24
L Borshchev Decision · R3 Aug '24
L Padilla Submission · R1 Apr '24