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UFC 295: Procházka vs. Pereira
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Erceg v Costa Flyweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
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Consensus38 picks · conf 60/99
Erceg 27
11 Costa
HFBWMZ pick Erceg
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Erceg 13-4 VS 15-5 Costa
5'8" height 5'4"
125 lb weight 125 lb
68" reach 67"
30 age 30
Orthodox stance Orthodox
4.4 strikes landed / min 4.2
48% striking accuracy 48%
4.2 strikes absorbed / min 4.1
53% striking defence 62%
1.2 takedowns / 15 min 2.9
26% takedown accuracy 54%
60% takedown defence 69%
0.5 submissions / 15 min 0.4
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only Go Pro →
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
RU RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Steve Erceg “got him as the winner ... I'll take Steve Erceg for the”
UC UFC - CELEBRITIES AND CLASSICS picks Steve Erceg “side call Steve Erceg to win good decision”
TS The Fight Week Show picks Steve Erceg “I'm going to go with eg”
TS The Fight Week Show picks Alessandro Costa VALUE “Full House n I'm on under dog in this one” $2.38
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Steve Erceg VALUE “I'm still going with Steve Erceg”
LM Leftlane MMA picks Steve Erceg VALUE “I'm going to be picking Steve Erceg in this fight... I've got a Steve IG money line” $1.50
LO Luke O'Libre picks Steve Erceg “I think he edges them out”
WP We Want Picks picks Alessandro Costa VALUE “I think Costa actually wins this fight”
KU Kunath picks Steve Erceg VALUE “alesandro Costa is the zig where they zag spot this week”
RP Rollin Wit Da Punches picks Alessandro Costa VALUE “I'm gonna go with Steve IG on this fight”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Steve Erceg “I'm gonna pick Steve Erceg to win” $1.50
HY Hypecheck picks Alessandro Costa VALUE “at plus money I think he's worth a Sprinkle” $2.65
Recent form last five, most recent first
Erceg13-4
W Elliott Decision · R3 May '26
W Osbourne Decision · R3 Aug '25
L Moreno Decision · R5 Mar '25
L Kara-France KO/TKO · R1 Aug '24
L Pantoja Decision · R5 May '24
Costa15-5
W Schnell KO/TKO · R1 Jun '26
W Nicoll KO/TKO · R2 Apr '26
L Coria KO/TKO · R3 Sep '25
W Borjas KO/TKO · R2 May '24
L Erceg Decision · R3 Nov '23