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Gaethje vs PoirierMain Card · Lightweight
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Maverick vs CachoeiraEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
DP
Gaethje vs PoirierMain Card · Lightweight
AP
JB
Pereira vs BłachowiczMain Card · Light Heavyweight
DL
ML
Lewis vs LimaMain Card · Heavyweight
BG
TF
Green vs FergusonMain Card · Lightweight
KH
MC
Holland vs ChiesaMain Card · Welterweight
GB
TG
Bonfim vs GilesPreliminary Card · Welterweight
CV
VS
Vergara vs SalvadorPreliminary Card · Catchweight
RK
CR
Kopylov vs RibeiroPreliminary Card · Middleweight
JM
DF
Matthews vs FlowersPreliminary Card · Welterweight
UM
MS
Medić vs SemelsbergerEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight
MM
PC
Maverick vs CachoeiraEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Gaethje v Poirier
Lightweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Gaethje 27-5
VS
30-9 Poirier
5'11"
height
5'9"
155 lb
weight
156 lb
70"
reach
72"
37
age
37
Orthodox
stance
Southpaw
7.4
strikes landed / min
5.3
57%
striking accuracy
50%
5.8
strikes absorbed / min
4.3
54%
striking defence
52%
0.7
takedowns / 15 min
1.2
34%
takedown accuracy
36%
68%
takedown defence
64%
0.2
submissions / 15 min
1.3
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
FS
Final Round Sports picks Dustin Poirier
“I'm taking Dustin Poirier over taking Dustin Poirier over taking Dustin Poirier over 14.75 minutes”
Final Round Sports picks Dustin Poirier
“I'm taking Dustin Poirier over taking Dustin Poirier over taking Dustin Poirier over 14.75 minutes”
TM
The MMA-Holes picks Dustin Poirier
“I'm still sticking whatever that card's gonna be Dustin Poirier”
The MMA-Holes picks Dustin Poirier
“I'm still sticking whatever that card's gonna be Dustin Poirier”
MJ
MMA Junkie picks Dustin Poirier
“it means everything you know look I'm Ready for War and I'll see you in the nutrition tomorrow thank you so late for coming I had a great week here I'm gonna leave it all out there I promise you Blood and Guts let's go”
MMA Junkie picks Dustin Poirier
“it means everything you know look I'm Ready for War and I'll see you in the nutrition tomorrow thank you so late for coming I had a great week here I'm gonna leave it all out there I promise you Blood and Guts let's go”
MJ
MMA Junkie picks Justin Gaethje
“means everything you know chance of redemption I can't wait to blow the roof off this place let's go”
MMA Junkie picks Justin Gaethje
“means everything you know chance of redemption I can't wait to blow the roof off this place let's go”
TO
The Call Out picks Dustin Poirier VALUE
“I'm gonna go Dustin though”
The Call Out picks Dustin Poirier VALUE
“I'm gonna go Dustin though”
MM
MMAWeekly.com picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“fight will be different because I'm better he's better but also might end in the same way”
MMAWeekly.com picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“fight will be different because I'm better he's better but also might end in the same way”
TT
The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“a little bit of a sprinkle on gay tree money line and just hoping that you know maybe employee has a good round one but eats some leg kicks and we can get him at plus 200 or something like that after that point”
The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“a little bit of a sprinkle on gay tree money line and just hoping that you know maybe employee has a good round one but eats some leg kicks and we can get him at plus 200 or something like that after that point”
SA
Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Dustin Poirier VALUE
“I'm gonna lean towards the Dustin Poirier side”
Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Dustin Poirier VALUE
“I'm gonna lean towards the Dustin Poirier side”
FP
Fight Game Media - Pro Wrestling Podcasts picks Dustin Poirier VALUE
“in the main event um this actually matches up with who I think is going to win um Dustin Poirier has a 64.7 Roi uh he's a minus 135 favorite and when he's been a favorite in the past he's been six and one”
Fight Game Media - Pro Wrestling Podcasts picks Dustin Poirier VALUE
“in the main event um this actually matches up with who I think is going to win um Dustin Poirier has a 64.7 Roi uh he's a minus 135 favorite and when he's been a favorite in the past he's been six and one”
TL
The life of laASMR picks Dustin Poirier
“I think Dustin Poirier is going to get the win”
The life of laASMR picks Dustin Poirier
“I think Dustin Poirier is going to get the win”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Gaethje27-5
W
Topuria
Jun '26
W
Pimblett
Jan '26
W
Fiziev
Mar '25
L
Holloway
Apr '24
W
Poirier
Jul '23
Poirier30-9
L
Holloway
Jul '25
L
Makhachev
Jun '24
W
Denis
Mar '24
L
Gaethje
Jul '23
W
Chandler
Nov '22