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UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Medić v Semelsberger Welterweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus25 picks · conf 50/99
Medić 8
17 Semelsberger
JSLPHW pick Medić
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Medić 10-2 VS 11-8 Semelsberger
— height 6'1"
— weight 171 lb
— reach 75"
33 age 33
Southpaw stance Switch
5.5 strikes landed / min 3.8
60% striking accuracy 42%
3.2 strikes absorbed / min 4.2
58% striking defence 54%
0.4 takedowns / 15 min 1.0
50% takedown accuracy 57%
55% takedown defence 45%
0.0 submissions / 15 min 0.4
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
RU RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Matthew Semelsberger VALUE “Matthew Semelsberger knocks him out” $77.00
HP Heavy P picks Uroš Medić “just go with Uroš Medić in this fight”
HY Hypecheck picks Uroš Medić VALUE “betting wise Uroš Medić is extremely live for the upset in this spot and I'll be sprinkling some money on him for Saturday”
SD Santino DeFranco picks Uroš Medić VALUE “I'm gonna go Euros in this one”
SL SPORTS TREE LTD. picks Matthew Semelsberger VALUE “I love Matthew simmonsberger in this spot and I already have a couple units on him” $1.56
XA XaaviMMA picks Matthew Semelsberger VALUE “someone's Burger will be the pick here”
DV Dissection Of Violence picks Matthew Semelsberger “I'm gonna go with Matthew Semelsberger simmonsberger” $1.50
TM The Ten7 MMA picks Matthew Semelsberger VALUE “I think samuelsberger is going to get the KO finish in this one”
FP Free Picks PickDawgz picks Matthew Semelsberger “in this one I gotta sound like Matthew simsenberger to get it done Uroš Medić”
PS Plays & Fades Sports picks Matthew Semelsberger “I do think there are more things to trust on the Matthew Semelsberger side for that reason he will be the pick both of them are great drafting starters though”
FF Fight Fiend Forecast picks Uroš Medić VALUE “he's my most confident Underdog of the week” $3.40
AD Addicted2Combat picks Matthew Semelsberger VALUE “give me Matthew Semelsberger pretty confidently I took him for two units at minus 165” $1.61
Recent form last five, most recent first
Medić10-2
W Neal KO/TKO · R1 Feb '26
W Salikhov KO/TKO · R1 Nov '25
W Urbina KO/TKO · R1 Aug '25
L Soriano KO/TKO · R1 Jan '25
W Means KO/TKO · R1 Apr '24
Semelsberger11-8
L Radtke KO/TKO · R1 Nov '24
L Parsons Decision · R3 Jan '24
L Medić KO/TKO · R3 Jul '23
L Wells Decision · R3 Apr '23
W Matthews Decision · R3 Dec '22