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Holland vs ChiesaMain Card · Welterweight
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Bonfim vs GilesPreliminary Card · Welterweight
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Vergara vs SalvadorPreliminary Card · Catchweight
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Kopylov vs RibeiroPreliminary Card · Middleweight
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Prophecy read
Holland v Chiesa
Welterweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Holland 28-15
VS
19-7 Chiesa
6'3"
height
6'1"
170 lb
weight
171 lb
81"
reach
76"
33
age
38
Orthodox
stance
Southpaw
4.2
strikes landed / min
1.9
49%
striking accuracy
40%
3.2
strikes absorbed / min
1.7
50%
striking defence
53%
0.8
takedowns / 15 min
3.4
38%
takedown accuracy
51%
54%
takedown defence
60%
0.6
submissions / 15 min
1.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
FF
Fight Fiend Forecast picks Kevin Holland VALUE
“I think he gets it done here for sure I haven't been a little parlay I think he's pretty safe to Parlay but it is a little bit dangerous of a fight going against a guy that is very talented on the ground super equipped but you know at 35 years old already has a nice comfy desk job with the UFC I'm not taking him to win I'm not putting any bets on him and I I will be surprised if he wins I will be he has a very low striking output and with the one dimensional game plan I'm trying to take Kevin Holland to the ground not going to work out Kevin Holland is well aware that's what Michael chassis wants to do in this fight and he's going to stop the takedowns and probably find that finish”
Fight Fiend Forecast picks Kevin Holland VALUE
“I think he gets it done here for sure I haven't been a little parlay I think he's pretty safe to Parlay but it is a little bit dangerous of a fight going against a guy that is very talented on the ground super equipped but you know at 35 years old already has a nice comfy desk job with the UFC I'm not taking him to win I'm not putting any bets on him and I I will be surprised if he wins I will be he has a very low striking output and with the one dimensional game plan I'm trying to take Kevin Holland to the ground not going to work out Kevin Holland is well aware that's what Michael chassis wants to do in this fight and he's going to stop the takedowns and probably find that finish”
FS
Final Round Sports picks Kevin Holland
“I'm picking this fight to go over 10 minutes so I'm picking it to go into the third round Now Kevin Holland is a good Striker ... the only way this would end early is if Kevin Holland gets a knockout”
Final Round Sports picks Kevin Holland
“I'm picking this fight to go over 10 minutes so I'm picking it to go into the third round Now Kevin Holland is a good Striker ... the only way this would end early is if Kevin Holland gets a knockout”
TT
The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Michael Chiesa VALUE
“I'd like them down to about that number my apologies I'll confront white Goodman and let him know uh of my mistake uh uh nobody makes me bleed my own blood uh time for you Billy Ward I won't call you Billy blade or Blazer Ward um but uh if Alex Pereira Alex Pereira Pereira does go against Stephen Thompson that's an if but say it does anything to add to zarello's analysis yeah just a little bit this is one from the lock ratings I pointed out earlier in the week he was about plus 145 I said I expect him to close around plus 130 so nailed that one still like him at plus 130 though”
$2.30
The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Michael Chiesa VALUE
“I'd like them down to about that number my apologies I'll confront white Goodman and let him know uh of my mistake uh uh nobody makes me bleed my own blood uh time for you Billy Ward I won't call you Billy blade or Blazer Ward um but uh if Alex Pereira Alex Pereira Pereira does go against Stephen Thompson that's an if but say it does anything to add to zarello's analysis yeah just a little bit this is one from the lock ratings I pointed out earlier in the week he was about plus 145 I said I expect him to close around plus 130 so nailed that one still like him at plus 130 though”
$2.30
TM
The MMA-Holes picks Kevin Holland
“I hope Kevin Holland beats the [ __ ] out um yeah I would be rooting for Kevin Holland Kevin Holland in this fight ... I'm starting to think that Kevin Holland's got this”
The MMA-Holes picks Kevin Holland
“I hope Kevin Holland beats the [ __ ] out um yeah I would be rooting for Kevin Holland Kevin Holland in this fight ... I'm starting to think that Kevin Holland's got this”
WD
Wade Dewell picks Kevin Holland
“I'm going for Kevin Holland Kevin Holland Holland to win”
Wade Dewell picks Kevin Holland
“I'm going for Kevin Holland Kevin Holland Holland to win”
TO
The Call Out picks Kevin Holland VALUE
“I'm gonna say the Kevin Holland gets it done”
The Call Out picks Kevin Holland VALUE
“I'm gonna say the Kevin Holland gets it done”
TT
The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Michael Chiesa VALUE
“I'm leaning towards the Kiesa side here just because if he's on top if he's controlling the positions... Michael kiasa round three or decision at plus 250”
The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Michael Chiesa VALUE
“I'm leaning towards the Kiesa side here just because if he's on top if he's controlling the positions... Michael kiasa round three or decision at plus 250”
SA
Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Michael Chiesa VALUE
“I'm gonna pick Michael keyesa to win”
Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Michael Chiesa VALUE
“I'm gonna pick Michael keyesa to win”
HP
Heavy P picks Kevin Holland
“Kevin Holland gets him out of there”
Heavy P picks Kevin Holland
“Kevin Holland gets him out of there”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Holland28-15
W
Brown
Apr '26
L
Malott
Oct '25
L
Rodriguez
Jul '25
W
Luque
Jun '25
W
Nelson
Mar '25
Chiesa19-7
W
Price
Mar '26
W
McGee
Jun '25
W
Griffin
Dec '24
W
Ferguson
Aug '24
L
Holland
Jul '23