MMA Prophecy
🌐BEST
UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Bueno Silva
Choose a fight to analyse
HH MS Holm vs SilvaMain Card · Women'S Bantamweight JM BH Maddalena vs HafezMain Card · Welterweight FP OA Prado vs AzaitarMain Card · Lightweight PJ AD Jun-yong vs DuraevMain Card · Middleweight ND CC Dumont vs ChandlerMain Card · Women'S Featherweight NS TM Sadykhov vs McKinneyMain Card · Lightweight MB TL Baghdasaryan vs LutzPreliminary Card · Featherweight VD IN Dudakova vs NunesPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight MC AL Costa vs LingoPreliminary Card · Featherweight EE GV Elder vs ValdezPreliminary Card · Lightweight AM TN Maksum vs NamPreliminary Card · Flyweight AM CI Munoz vs IIIPreliminary Card · Lightweight AP AE Pérez vs Evans-SmithPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight
BEST PRICE Prophecy read Elder v Valdez Lightweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
New here? Create a free account for the full leaderboard & bet tracker
Consensus30 picks · conf 54/99
Elder 25
5 Valdez
HIDBJh pick Elder
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Elder 10-2 VS 10-3 Valdez
5'10" height 5'9"
156 lb weight 156 lb
72" reach 72"
29 age 34
Switch stance Orthodox
2.0 strikes landed / min 4.1
60% striking accuracy 30%
3.9 strikes absorbed / min 7.2
71% striking defence 48%
2.5 takedowns / 15 min 1.5
44% takedown accuracy 44%
90% takedown defence 36%
0.6 submissions / 15 min 0.4
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only Go Pro →
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
UC UFC - CELEBRITIES AND CLASSICS picks Evan Elder VALUE “the next one is Genaro Valdez versus Evan Elder um like Evan Elder should win”
SA Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Evan Elder VALUE “I'm picking Elder to win”
SA Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Genaro Valdez “I don't think Elder is as good as Natan Levy I don't think he's as good as Matt frivola but there is so much concerns about the takedown defense and the durability of finero Valdez”
MM MMAWeekly.com picks Genaro Valdez “Genaro Valdez takes on Evan Elder”
WP We Want Picks picks Evan Elder “I think Evan Elder should win this fight” $95.00
SD Santino DeFranco picks Evan Elder VALUE “you got to go Evan Elder on that”
HY Hypecheck picks Evan Elder VALUE “give me Valdez for a Sprinkle all day here in a doger pass spot”
AD Addicted2Combat picks Evan Elder “most confident fighter is Jack Della Maddalena melchizio Costa Evan Elder”
LF Liam Picks Fights picks Evan Elder “I think he's going to get the win here” $1.33
PR Premium-Picks picks Evan Elder “I got Evan Elder just being a bit more well-rounded a bit stronger but uh he's not really making my ticket”
DS DFS Army - Daily Fantasy Sports picks Evan Elder “the ultimate pick is Evan Elder” $1.33
IP It's Time - UFC Picks picks Evan Elder VALUE “both of us going with Evan Evan Elder”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Elder10-2
W Young Decision · R3 Apr '25
W Flowers Submission · R2 Jul '24
W Valdez Decision · R3 Jul '23
L Sadykhov KO/TKO · R3 Feb '23
L Parsons Decision · R3 Apr '22
Valdez10-3
L Elder Decision · R3 Jul '23