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UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Oliveira v Dariush Lightweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
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Consensus30 picks · conf 54/99
Oliveira 16
14 Dariush
FBSMTF pick Oliveira
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Oliveira 36-11 VS 23-7-1 Dariush
5'10" height 5'10"
156 lb weight 157 lb
74" reach 72"
36 age 37
Orthodox stance Southpaw
3.7 strikes landed / min 3.8
48% striking accuracy 48%
3.3 strikes absorbed / min 2.6
53% striking defence 57%
1.4 takedowns / 15 min 1.9
44% takedown accuracy 34%
57% takedown defence 80%
2.1 submissions / 15 min 0.9
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TT The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Beneil Dariush VALUE “Billy's taking Beneil Dariush on the money line”
UC UFC - CELEBRITIES AND CLASSICS picks Beneil Dariush VALUE “Beneil Beneil Dariush to win is going to be next call barriers to win uh there is a decision”
UC UFC - CELEBRITIES AND CLASSICS picks Charles Oliveira VALUE “I'm gonna go with Charles Oliveira”
FH Fight HQ picks Charles Oliveira VALUE “I'm gonna go Darius”
SD Santino DeFranco picks Charles Oliveira VALUE “I'm gonna go Charles Charles Oliveira here”
EB ESPN BET picks Beneil Dariush VALUE “I think the way vanilla Beneil Dariush wins this fight is very similar to Islamic I think he catches Charles Oliveira follows him to the ground either finishes it with punches or gets a submission” $1.67
EB ESPN BET picks Charles Oliveira “he's fighting someone in Manila Beneil Dariush who's an elite Grappler world-class Jiu Jitsu he's got crazy knockout power” $2.30
TB Totally Blitzed picks Beneil Dariush VALUE “I'm gonna rock with die us” $1.67
TB Totally Blitzed picks Charles Oliveira VALUE “I gotta take my boy the Bronx” $2.50
BB Blood Money MMA Bets picks Charles Oliveira VALUE “third bet that I have is Charles Oliveira man”
SA Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Charles Oliveira VALUE “I'm gonna be a little bit higher on Charles Oliveira”
FR FREESTYLEBENDER picks Charles Oliveira “imma go Charles Oliveira cause olives Charles Oliveira”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Oliveira36-11
W Holloway Decision · R5 Mar '26
W Gamrot Submission · R2 Oct '25
L Topuria KO/TKO · R1 Jun '25
W Chandler Decision · R5 Nov '24
L Tsarukyan Decision · R3 Apr '24
Dariush23-7-1
L Salkilld KO/TKO · R1 May '26
L Denis KO/TKO · R1 Nov '25
W Moicano Decision · R3 Jun '25
L Tsarukyan KO/TKO · R1 Dec '23
L Oliveira KO/TKO · R1 Jun '23