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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Nelson v Bilder
Featherweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Nelson 17-6-1
VS
8-2-1 Bilder
5'11"
height
5'8"
155 lb
weight
144 lb
71"
reach
69"
35
age
35
Switch
stance
Switch
2.7
strikes landed / min
3.8
44%
striking accuracy
48%
3.6
strikes absorbed / min
4.2
61%
striking defence
53%
2.5
takedowns / 15 min
0.3
31%
takedown accuracy
7%
56%
takedown defence
71%
1.0
submissions / 15 min
0.6
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
FS
Final Round Sports picks Kyle Nelson
“Kyle Nelson decision”
Final Round Sports picks Kyle Nelson
“Kyle Nelson decision”
RU
RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Kyle Nelson
“I'm taking Kyle Nelson ... gonna go with Kyle Nelson”
$3.00
RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Kyle Nelson
“I'm taking Kyle Nelson ... gonna go with Kyle Nelson”
$3.00
SD
Santino DeFranco picks Blake Bilder
“I'm gonna go Blake Bilder on this one”
Santino DeFranco picks Blake Bilder
“I'm gonna go Blake Bilder on this one”
SA
Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Blake Bilder VALUE
“I'm gonna be a little bit higher on the Blake Bilder Bilder side”
Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Blake Bilder VALUE
“I'm gonna be a little bit higher on the Blake Bilder Bilder side”
GU
GuillotineGeeks picks Kyle Nelson
“going with Kyle Nelson it's gonna be a sweep here I think that uh Shane Young was a very similar Style Match”
GuillotineGeeks picks Kyle Nelson
“going with Kyle Nelson it's gonna be a sweep here I think that uh Shane Young was a very similar Style Match”
GU
GuillotineGeeks picks Blake Bilder VALUE
“I'm gonna take like Builder I just think that you know he he's kind of just like meat and potatoes where it's like he just shuffles around the Octagon shoots a shot when he has to big big overhands or whatever it is but it's effective and he's got a really strong base when he gets you down so he gets that control time”
GuillotineGeeks picks Blake Bilder VALUE
“I'm gonna take like Builder I just think that you know he he's kind of just like meat and potatoes where it's like he just shuffles around the Octagon shoots a shot when he has to big big overhands or whatever it is but it's effective and he's got a really strong base when he gets you down so he gets that control time”
WP
We Want Picks picks Blake Bilder VALUE
“if Blake Bilder wants to be clean precise shoot takedowns work from there he can get it done I do trust Blake Bilder on a card where you know the favorites are all mid-level type favorites I think Blake Bilder's one of the better ones I will probably have him in my lineup”
We Want Picks picks Blake Bilder VALUE
“if Blake Bilder wants to be clean precise shoot takedowns work from there he can get it done I do trust Blake Bilder on a card where you know the favorites are all mid-level type favorites I think Blake Bilder's one of the better ones I will probably have him in my lineup”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Blake Bilder VALUE
“my pick here is Blake Blake Bilder and he's been a confident pick for me I think he has a physical strength Edge a grappling advantage and I feel like in the Striking he could be powerful on the inside ultimately where I worry is from the mid slash long range he's three inches shorter than Kyle Nelson and I do respect Nelson's right hand as well as his overall striking base Muay Thai Esh Stand Up Style on the floor Blake Bilder will have a strong grappling Advantage use that that is the clearest path to victory in my opinion for Blake Blake Bilder is going to be getting this fight on the floor where he shines the most controlling Nelson working peppering ground and pound and going towards finding a finish and ultimately if he can't find the finish a unanimous decision I'll be grateful for Blake Bilder is the pick”
$1.42
MMA EXPERTS picks Blake Bilder VALUE
“my pick here is Blake Blake Bilder and he's been a confident pick for me I think he has a physical strength Edge a grappling advantage and I feel like in the Striking he could be powerful on the inside ultimately where I worry is from the mid slash long range he's three inches shorter than Kyle Nelson and I do respect Nelson's right hand as well as his overall striking base Muay Thai Esh Stand Up Style on the floor Blake Bilder will have a strong grappling Advantage use that that is the clearest path to victory in my opinion for Blake Blake Bilder is going to be getting this fight on the floor where he shines the most controlling Nelson working peppering ground and pound and going towards finding a finish and ultimately if he can't find the finish a unanimous decision I'll be grateful for Blake Bilder is the pick”
$1.42
CL
Clenbat picks Blake Bilder VALUE
“my lock of the week is Blake Bilder Blake Bilder Bilder”
Clenbat picks Blake Bilder VALUE
“my lock of the week is Blake Bilder Blake Bilder Bilder”
CL
Clenbat picks Blake Bilder VALUE
“and Blake Bilder five bucks gets me 32 dollars in return”
Clenbat picks Blake Bilder VALUE
“and Blake Bilder five bucks gets me 32 dollars in return”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Nelson17-6-1
L
McKinney
Mar '26
W
Frevola
Oct '25
L
Garcia
Sep '24
W
Algeo
Mar '24
W
Padilla
Sep '23
Bilder8-2-1
L
Jeong-yeong
Feb '24
L
Nelson
Jun '23
W
Young
Feb '23