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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Erceg v Dvořák
Flyweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus14 picks · conf 35/99
E
pick Erceg
pick Erceg
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Erceg 13-4
VS
20-6 Dvořák
5'8"
height
—
125 lb
weight
—
68"
reach
—
30
age
34
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
4.4
strikes landed / min
3.5
48%
striking accuracy
43%
4.2
strikes absorbed / min
3.3
53%
striking defence
59%
1.2
takedowns / 15 min
0.6
26%
takedown accuracy
30%
60%
takedown defence
70%
0.5
submissions / 15 min
0.2
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
TT
The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks David Dvořák VALUE
“Dvorak at minus 280”
$1.36
The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks David Dvořák VALUE
“Dvorak at minus 280”
$1.36
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks David Dvořák
“I'm going David Dvořák he's a big favorite at minus 270”
MMA EXPERTS picks David Dvořák
“I'm going David Dvořák he's a big favorite at minus 270”
EB
ESPN BET picks Steve Erceg
“I'm going David Dvořák David Dvořák Dvořák by decision against Steve Steve Erceg who's taking this fight in short notice”
ESPN BET picks Steve Erceg
“I'm going David Dvořák David Dvořák Dvořák by decision against Steve Steve Erceg who's taking this fight in short notice”
SA
Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks David Dvořák
“I favor devorak to win”
Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks David Dvořák
“I favor devorak to win”
GU
GuillotineGeeks picks David Dvořák
“I'm gonna take David Dvořák just based on you know the fact that this guy has kind of seen it all so you know stepping in there for your debut you're in for a a whole lot definitely with uh a rejuvenated David that's looking to get back in the will win column so I'm riding the the David Dvořák train”
GuillotineGeeks picks David Dvořák
“I'm gonna take David Dvořák just based on you know the fact that this guy has kind of seen it all so you know stepping in there for your debut you're in for a a whole lot definitely with uh a rejuvenated David that's looking to get back in the will win column so I'm riding the the David Dvořák train”
DS
Dynes Sports picks David Dvořák VALUE
Dynes Sports picks David Dvořák VALUE
WP
We Want Picks picks David Dvořák
“I think David Dvořák gets the Steve ursegg's head whenever he wants to I think David Dvořák defends the takedowns I think this is a clear win for David Dvořák I just don't know if he wins my finish”
We Want Picks picks David Dvořák
“I think David Dvořák gets the Steve ursegg's head whenever he wants to I think David Dvořák defends the takedowns I think this is a clear win for David Dvořák I just don't know if he wins my finish”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Steve Erceg VALUE
“I've been picking Steve Erceg all week long reason being I think he has the clear-cut grappling advantage and then when you look at the Striking game David Dvořák is not overly powerful though he has decent kickboxing it's not like ursay can't strike he's got a little speed on his hook he's also got a length Advantage five foot nine as opposed to five foot five I'm very curious though how this length for ersteg assists him in grappling positions I think he's got the clear Edge on David Dvořák so the ultimate question is going to be can Steve Erceg land the takedown or can ursaic potentially climb the Back Against the Cage how does he get to dominant position in this fight that's going to be everything I believe he's gonna find it and I think there is a real chance he wins by sub I'm going Steve Erceg for the upset”
$3.50
MMA EXPERTS picks Steve Erceg VALUE
“I've been picking Steve Erceg all week long reason being I think he has the clear-cut grappling advantage and then when you look at the Striking game David Dvořák is not overly powerful though he has decent kickboxing it's not like ursay can't strike he's got a little speed on his hook he's also got a length Advantage five foot nine as opposed to five foot five I'm very curious though how this length for ersteg assists him in grappling positions I think he's got the clear Edge on David Dvořák so the ultimate question is going to be can Steve Erceg land the takedown or can ursaic potentially climb the Back Against the Cage how does he get to dominant position in this fight that's going to be everything I believe he's gonna find it and I think there is a real chance he wins by sub I'm going Steve Erceg for the upset”
$3.50
NN
Noah Nwadei picks David Dvořák VALUE
“I'm taking David Dvořák”
Noah Nwadei picks David Dvořák VALUE
“I'm taking David Dvořák”
CL
Clenbat picks Steve Erceg VALUE
“ersek was suggested as a potential upset due to his counter-striking and submission skills”
Clenbat picks Steve Erceg VALUE
“ersek was suggested as a potential upset due to his counter-striking and submission skills”
UG
UFC GamblingAddicts picks David Dvořák
“give me David Dvorak to end the losing streak against pretty low level competition”
UFC GamblingAddicts picks David Dvořák
“give me David Dvorak to end the losing streak against pretty low level competition”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Erceg13-4
W
Elliott
May '26
W
Osbourne
Aug '25
L
Moreno
Mar '25
L
Kara-France
Aug '24
L
Pantoja
May '24
Dvořák20-6
L
Erceg
Jun '23
L
Kape
Dec '22
L
Nicolau
Mar '22
W
Ronderos
May '21
W
Espinosa
Sep '20