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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Williams v Sherman
Heavyweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Williams 10-2
VS
16-12 Sherman
—
height
6'4"
—
weight
254 lb
—
reach
78"
36
age
36
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
2.7
strikes landed / min
6.0
48%
striking accuracy
45%
2.1
strikes absorbed / min
6.7
55%
striking defence
52%
4.2
takedowns / 15 min
0.1
48%
takedown accuracy
50%
100%
takedown defence
74%
0.2
submissions / 15 min
0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
FF
Fight Fiend Forecast picks Karl Williams VALUE
“Karl Williams is in our safety parlay this week and I might give you the safety parlay at the end of the props safety parlay is nailed the money line magic it's the same thing maximum three Fighters no women's fighters on that either it's going to be our three most confident picks and hopefully we're gonna double the money each and every week”
Fight Fiend Forecast picks Karl Williams VALUE
“Karl Williams is in our safety parlay this week and I might give you the safety parlay at the end of the props safety parlay is nailed the money line magic it's the same thing maximum three Fighters no women's fighters on that either it's going to be our three most confident picks and hopefully we're gonna double the money each and every week”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Karl Williams
“the official pick throughout the week has been Karl Williams to Win It by a decision”
$1.24
MMA EXPERTS picks Karl Williams
“the official pick throughout the week has been Karl Williams to Win It by a decision”
$1.24
SD
Santino DeFranco picks Karl Williams VALUE
“I'll go Karl Williams”
Santino DeFranco picks Karl Williams VALUE
“I'll go Karl Williams”
TM
The MMA-Holes picks Chase Sherman VALUE
“Chase Sherman fight got moved over to this Daniel Rodriguez”
The MMA-Holes picks Chase Sherman VALUE
“Chase Sherman fight got moved over to this Daniel Rodriguez”
TM
The MMA-Holes picks Karl Williams VALUE
“Karl Williams uh Chase Sherman fight got moved over to this Daniel Rodriguez”
The MMA-Holes picks Karl Williams VALUE
“Karl Williams uh Chase Sherman fight got moved over to this Daniel Rodriguez”
CL
Clenbat picks Karl Williams VALUE
“just Karl Williams to win is my pick”
Clenbat picks Karl Williams VALUE
“just Karl Williams to win is my pick”
WP
We Want Picks picks Karl Williams
“Carl Williams is going to blow through Chase Sherman he's gonna beat Chase Sherman but Karl Williams is not exactly putting people out immediately and Chase Sherman is insanely tough I see a decent amount of striking but a good amount of wrestling”
We Want Picks picks Karl Williams
“Carl Williams is going to blow through Chase Sherman he's gonna beat Chase Sherman but Karl Williams is not exactly putting people out immediately and Chase Sherman is insanely tough I see a decent amount of striking but a good amount of wrestling”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Karl Williams VALUE
“I think Williams gets takedowns and probably finishes Sherman”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Karl Williams VALUE
“I think Williams gets takedowns and probably finishes Sherman”
UG
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Karl Williams VALUE
“give me Karl Williams to win this match up”
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Karl Williams VALUE
“give me Karl Williams to win this match up”
HY
Hypecheck picks Karl Williams VALUE
“Karl Williams will lay and prey on Chase Sherman all day... betting wise I rarely call any fighter a quote unquote lock as anything can happen once those octagon doors Clos but Karl Williams is as close to one we'll ever get on Saturday”
Hypecheck picks Karl Williams VALUE
“Karl Williams will lay and prey on Chase Sherman all day... betting wise I rarely call any fighter a quote unquote lock as anything can happen once those octagon doors Clos but Karl Williams is as close to one we'll ever get on Saturday”
WP
We Want Picks picks Karl Williams VALUE
“I gotta go Karl Williams all the way very confident in Karl Williams honestly one of the easier parlays on this card”
We Want Picks picks Karl Williams VALUE
“I gotta go Karl Williams all the way very confident in Karl Williams honestly one of the easier parlays on this card”
TG
THE MMA GURU picks Karl Williams
“I'm gonna go if Carl Williams here over Chase Sherman I was going to pick him on the previous card that they were supposed to be on I believe it was UFC 287 it got a little bit extended and in my opinion that only benefits Karl Williams who was taking it on a very quick turnaround he got a win against bursky on March the 11th was going to be fighting on the 8th of May April on short notice it got canceled he's got another whole month to prepare for this matchup and Chase Sherman I guess is gonna have a chance to try and adjust to now facing a wrestler instead instead of his original opponent who was Chris Barnett but in my opinion I don't think it's going to make a difference and I think that Karl Williams is going to be able to take down Chase Sherman and even do okay on the feet in moments as well I think Chase Sherman has a stand-up Advantage but you can't deny he has one way of losing most of the time and that is by being taken down and beaten up on the ground and I think that's exactly what Karl Williams is going to do plus Sherman's had a lot of miles on him as well so I don't think that's going to help him out in this matchup either I do believe in the Williams takedowns in my opinion he's got good technique for a heavy weight and he shoots good takedowns I think you'll be able to beat Sherman uh if you can beat burski who can push a better paced in Sherman in my opinion and is a little bit more slick on the feet”
THE MMA GURU picks Karl Williams
“I'm gonna go if Carl Williams here over Chase Sherman I was going to pick him on the previous card that they were supposed to be on I believe it was UFC 287 it got a little bit extended and in my opinion that only benefits Karl Williams who was taking it on a very quick turnaround he got a win against bursky on March the 11th was going to be fighting on the 8th of May April on short notice it got canceled he's got another whole month to prepare for this matchup and Chase Sherman I guess is gonna have a chance to try and adjust to now facing a wrestler instead instead of his original opponent who was Chris Barnett but in my opinion I don't think it's going to make a difference and I think that Karl Williams is going to be able to take down Chase Sherman and even do okay on the feet in moments as well I think Chase Sherman has a stand-up Advantage but you can't deny he has one way of losing most of the time and that is by being taken down and beaten up on the ground and I think that's exactly what Karl Williams is going to do plus Sherman's had a lot of miles on him as well so I don't think that's going to help him out in this matchup either I do believe in the Williams takedowns in my opinion he's got good technique for a heavy weight and he shoots good takedowns I think you'll be able to beat Sherman uh if you can beat burski who can push a better paced in Sherman in my opinion and is a little bit more slick on the feet”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Williams10-2
L
Diniz
Aug '24
W
Tafa
Mar '24
W
Sherman
May '23
W
Brzeski
Mar '23
Sherman16-12
L
Williams
May '23
L
Cortes-Acosta
Nov '22
W
Vanderaa
Jul '22
L
Romanov
Apr '22
L
Collier
Jan '22