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UFC on ESPN: Holloway vs. Allen
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Holloway v Allen Featherweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus13 picks · conf 34/99
Holloway 10
3 Allen
MSACPD pick Holloway
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Holloway 0-0 VS 20-4 Allen
5'11" height 5'8"
155 lb weight 145 lb
69" reach 70"
34 age 32
Orthodox stance Southpaw
6.8 strikes landed / min 3.5
46% striking accuracy 41%
4.4 strikes absorbed / min 2.9
59% striking defence 61%
0.4 takedowns / 15 min 0.9
39% takedown accuracy 47%
79% takedown defence 75%
0.2 submissions / 15 min 0.3
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
HB Half The Battle picks Arnold Allen VALUE “so for that reason I'm gonna go with Arnold Allen Allen” $2.50
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Max Holloway “The pick throughout the week has been Max Holloway to get the win... Max Holloway 49-46 by a unanimous decision” $1.65
TH TheMMASpokesman picks Max Holloway VALUE “I believe that Max Holloway will come out on top in this matchup ... I see a fourth round TKO victory for Max Holloway”
KU Kunath picks Max Holloway “give me Max Holloway to win that fight”
WP We Want Picks picks Max Holloway VALUE “I like Max Holloway Max Holloway Holloway I think he wins this fight we all know him by now very high volume Striker”
NN Noah Nwadei picks Max Holloway “if I had a gun to my head who do I think wins this fight I'm gonna go with Max Holloway I'm gonna go with Max Holloway”
SH Sherdog.com picks Max Holloway VALUE “first bet of the week is Max Hollow air minus 170.” $1.59
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Max Holloway VALUE “give me Max all the way going to have a ton of them this week Max Holloway from a DraftKings perspective would be a big mistake”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Arnold Allen “Arnold Allen 7200 yeah not in love with this one but he's going to be very popular as well which makes me like him even less”
BD Big Dave picks Arnold Allen “I'm gonna go by contentious split decision”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Max Holloway VALUE “I'm picking a Max Holloway Holloway Max Holloway Holloway for the win bro”
PR Premium-Picks picks Max Holloway VALUE “I take Max by decision”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Holloway0-0
L Oliveira Decision · R5 Mar '26
W Poirier Decision · R5 Jul '25
L Topuria KO/TKO · R3 Oct '24
W Gaethje KO/TKO · R5 Apr '24
W Chan-sung KO/TKO · R3 Aug '23
Allen20-4
W Costa Decision · R5 May '26
L Silva Decision · R3 Jan '26
W Chikadze Decision · R3 Jul '24
L Evloev Decision · R3 Jan '24
L Holloway Decision · R5 Apr '23