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UFC on ESPN: Holloway vs. Allen
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read García v Guida Lightweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
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Consensus8 picks · conf 24/99
García 7
1 Guida
HMAKWW pick García
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
García 11-6-1 VS 38-21 Guida
6'1" height 5'7"
154 lb weight 155 lb
76" reach 70"
— age 44
Switch stance Orthodox
4.2 strikes landed / min 2.6
51% striking accuracy 33%
4.8 strikes absorbed / min 3.0
65% striking defence 61%
1.3 takedowns / 15 min 3.1
33% takedown accuracy 36%
82% takedown defence 67%
1.4 submissions / 15 min 0.6
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
HB Half The Battle picks Rafa García “I'm gonna go Rafa García for the win” $1.36
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Rafa García “The pick all week has been Rafa García Rafa García García... I'm picking Rafa García García” $1.38
KU Kunath picks Rafa García “I really do like Rafa García however he's grown on me and I think this is a great matchup for him to not only win but to pick up a finish as well”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Rafa García VALUE “the pick here I'm gonna pick Rafa García I think he can outbox clay Clay Guida”
BD Big Dave picks Rafa García “I'm gonna pick him to beat clay Guido by first round TKO”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Rafa García VALUE “I think Rafa García beats him”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Rafa García VALUE “I gotta pick Rafa García” $1.44
WP We Want Picks picks Rafa García “give me Ralph in this matchup”
WM Walk The Line MMA picks Rafa García VALUE “I think that Rafa García García gets the job done” $1.40
CL Clenbat picks Clay Guida “I'm gonna pick clay Guida by decision or submission”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Rafa García “I'm gonna ride with Rafa García García to win” $1.53
WP We Want Picks picks Rafa García “I expect them to win this fight”
Recent form last five, most recent first
García11-6-1
W Hernandez Decision · R3 Apr '26
W Gordon KO/TKO · R3 Sep '25
W Pichel Decision · R3 Mar '25
L Dawson KO/TKO · R2 Oct '24
W Guida Decision · R3 Apr '23
Guida38-21
L Hooper Submission · R1 Dec '24
L Silva Decision · R3 Dec '23
L García Decision · R3 Apr '23
W Holtzman Decision · R3 Dec '22
L Puelles Submission · R1 Apr '22