Choose a fight to analyse
IA
AP
Adesanya vs PereiraMain Card · Middleweight
GB
JM
Burns vs MasvidalMain Card · Welterweight
RF
AY
Font vs YañezMain Card · Bantamweight
KH
SP
Holland vs PonzinibbioMain Card · Welterweight
CR
RJ
Rodriguez vs Rosas Jr.Main Card · Catchweight
KG
CC
Gastelum vs CurtisPreliminary Card · Middleweight
LP
MW
Pinheiro vs Waterson-GomezPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
JP
GM
Pyfer vs MeerschaertPreliminary Card · Middleweight
LG
CC
Godinez vs CalvilloPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
IB
TO
Bahamondes vs OgdenEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight
SG
SN
Garcia vs NuerdanbiekeEarly Preliminary Card · Featherweight
SH
JA
Hughes vs AmorimEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
AP
Adesanya vs PereiraMain Card · Middleweight
GB
JM
Burns vs MasvidalMain Card · Welterweight
RF
AY
Font vs YañezMain Card · Bantamweight
KH
SP
Holland vs PonzinibbioMain Card · Welterweight
CR
RJ
Rodriguez vs Rosas Jr.Main Card · Catchweight
KG
CC
Gastelum vs CurtisPreliminary Card · Middleweight
LP
MW
Pinheiro vs Waterson-GomezPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
JP
GM
Pyfer vs MeerschaertPreliminary Card · Middleweight
LG
CC
Godinez vs CalvilloPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
IB
TO
Bahamondes vs OgdenEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight
SG
SN
Garcia vs NuerdanbiekeEarly Preliminary Card · Featherweight
SH
JA
Hughes vs AmorimEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Burns v Masvidal
Welterweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
Go Pro →
New here? Create a free account for the full leaderboard & bet tracker
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Burns 22-9
VS
35-17 Masvidal
5'10"
height
5'11"
170 lb
weight
170 lb
71"
reach
74"
39
age
41
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
3.2
strikes landed / min
4.0
48%
striking accuracy
47%
3.6
strikes absorbed / min
3.0
52%
striking defence
64%
2.1
takedowns / 15 min
1.4
37%
takedown accuracy
59%
53%
takedown defence
72%
0.5
submissions / 15 min
0.3
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
Go Pro →
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
ES
etoft21 sports picks Gilbert Burns
“I took Gilbert Burns by submission plus 225”
TT
TFB's Talks picks Jorge Masvidal
“I've said this before Jorge Masvidal I'm going to pick Jorge Masvidal though um but I pick Jorge Masvidal not just because... I'm going with Jorge game braid Jorge Masvidal”
ET
Extra Thiccc picks Gilbert Burns
“I think Gilbert Burns probably has Advantage because you know it's extremely well-rounded and you know Jorge Masvidal is two he's a big strong Striker I just think the burns probably is a little bit more dangerous in every area... just I think Gilbert Gilbert Burns's just a little bit better in every area”
MJ
MMA JOEY picks Jorge Masvidal VALUE
“Gilbert Burns does look goofy as hell he's gonna lose now”
PP
Pick Pocket Podcast picks Gilbert Burns
“I'm gonna go with Gilbert Burns here he's I'm gonna go with Gilbert Burns here Gilbert Burns wants this title shot he has to and Gilbert Burns to win... I got money Gilbert Burns”
CD
Cappers Direct picks Gilbert Burns
“I like Gilbert Burns let's get into your good friend of mine Jorge Masvidal”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Jorge Masvidal
“I think Burns should win the fight”
WP
We Want Picks picks Jorge Masvidal VALUE
“I do think George masford all loses this fight”
OM
One On One | MMA picks Gilbert Burns
“yeah I predict Gilbert Burns I actually think Gilbert Burns might stop him in some way he didn't submit him probably I don't see Jorge Masvidal tapping ... I think Gilbert Burns submits him I think he gets him down beats him up and it just gets ugly and then he submits him”
MJ
MMA JOEY picks Gilbert Burns VALUE
“Burns and out of Sonya boom”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Burns22-9
L
Malott
Apr '26
L
Morales
May '25
L
Brady
Sep '24
L
Maddalena
Mar '24
L
Muhammad
May '23
Masvidal35-17
L
Burns
Apr '23
L
Covington
Mar '22
L
Usman
Apr '21
L
Usman
Jul '20
W
Diaz
Nov '19