Choose a fight to analyse
IA
AP
Adesanya vs PereiraMain Card · Middleweight
GB
JM
Burns vs MasvidalMain Card · Welterweight
RF
AY
Font vs YañezMain Card · Bantamweight
KH
SP
Holland vs PonzinibbioMain Card · Welterweight
CR
RJ
Rodriguez vs Rosas Jr.Main Card · Catchweight
KG
CC
Gastelum vs CurtisPreliminary Card · Middleweight
LP
MW
Pinheiro vs Waterson-GomezPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
JP
GM
Pyfer vs MeerschaertPreliminary Card · Middleweight
LG
CC
Godinez vs CalvilloPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
IB
TO
Bahamondes vs OgdenEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight
SG
SN
Garcia vs NuerdanbiekeEarly Preliminary Card · Featherweight
SH
JA
Hughes vs AmorimEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
AP
Adesanya vs PereiraMain Card · Middleweight
GB
JM
Burns vs MasvidalMain Card · Welterweight
RF
AY
Font vs YañezMain Card · Bantamweight
KH
SP
Holland vs PonzinibbioMain Card · Welterweight
CR
RJ
Rodriguez vs Rosas Jr.Main Card · Catchweight
KG
CC
Gastelum vs CurtisPreliminary Card · Middleweight
LP
MW
Pinheiro vs Waterson-GomezPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
JP
GM
Pyfer vs MeerschaertPreliminary Card · Middleweight
LG
CC
Godinez vs CalvilloPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
IB
TO
Bahamondes vs OgdenEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight
SG
SN
Garcia vs NuerdanbiekeEarly Preliminary Card · Featherweight
SH
JA
Hughes vs AmorimEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Gastelum v Curtis
Middleweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
Go Pro →
New here? Create a free account for the full leaderboard & bet tracker
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Gastelum 21-10
VS
32-12 Curtis
5'9"
height
5'10"
191 lb
weight
170 lb
71"
reach
76"
34
age
38
Southpaw
stance
Orthodox
4.4
strikes landed / min
5.8
52%
striking accuracy
51%
4.9
strikes absorbed / min
6.2
74%
striking defence
52%
1.9
takedowns / 15 min
0.0
32%
takedown accuracy
0%
86%
takedown defence
82%
1.2
submissions / 15 min
0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
Go Pro →
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
RU
RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Kelvin Gastelum
“yeah I like Kelvin Gastelum to win here Kelvin Gastelum to win here Kelvin Gastelum to win here um I think this is probably the most you guys like narrative um but I'm I'm on Kelvin Gastelum I'm here um but I'm I'm on Kelvin Gastelum I'm here um but I'm I'm on Kelvin Gastelum I'm here”
RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Kelvin Gastelum
“yeah I like Kelvin Gastelum to win here Kelvin Gastelum to win here Kelvin Gastelum to win here um I think this is probably the most you guys like narrative um but I'm I'm on Kelvin Gastelum I'm here um but I'm I'm on Kelvin Gastelum I'm here um but I'm I'm on Kelvin Gastelum I'm here”
ES
etoft21 sports picks Chris Curtis
“I like Chris Curtis to win this by decision at plus 225”
etoft21 sports picks Chris Curtis
“I like Chris Curtis to win this by decision at plus 225”
KU
Kunath picks Chris Curtis VALUE
“I like Chris Curtis this week I like him to win I think he wins a decision”
Kunath picks Chris Curtis VALUE
“I like Chris Curtis this week I like him to win I think he wins a decision”
PP
Pick Pocket Podcast picks Kelvin Gastelum
“I'm gonna go with Kelvin Gastelum here man Kelvin Gastelum don't get me wrong I know I'm rocking with Kelvin Gastelum here uh I Kelvin Gastelum like catches him with a nice Kelvin Gastelum it's a you know a little minus 340 we got Kelvin Gastelum minus 136”
$1.29
Pick Pocket Podcast picks Kelvin Gastelum
“I'm gonna go with Kelvin Gastelum here man Kelvin Gastelum don't get me wrong I know I'm rocking with Kelvin Gastelum here uh I Kelvin Gastelum like catches him with a nice Kelvin Gastelum it's a you know a little minus 340 we got Kelvin Gastelum minus 136”
$1.29
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Kelvin Gastelum VALUE
“I think Carl Williams has the highest upside on the Slate”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Kelvin Gastelum VALUE
“I think Carl Williams has the highest upside on the Slate”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Chris Curtis
“I think this fight goes three rounds”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Chris Curtis
“I think this fight goes three rounds”
WP
We Want Picks picks Chris Curtis VALUE
“Chris Curtis wins this fight”
We Want Picks picks Chris Curtis VALUE
“Chris Curtis wins this fight”
MP
Mike's MMA Picks picks Kelvin Gastelum VALUE
“now I am picking Kelvin Gastelum to win”
Mike's MMA Picks picks Kelvin Gastelum VALUE
“now I am picking Kelvin Gastelum to win”
UG
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Kelvin Gastelum
“I'm going Kelvin Gastelum”
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Kelvin Gastelum
“I'm going Kelvin Gastelum”
WP
We Want Picks picks Chris Curtis VALUE
“Chris Curtis likely week number two”
We Want Picks picks Chris Curtis VALUE
“Chris Curtis likely week number two”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Kelvin Gastelum VALUE
“I'm rooting for Kelvin Gastelum as well”
MMA EXPERTS picks Kelvin Gastelum VALUE
“I'm rooting for Kelvin Gastelum as well”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Gastelum21-10
L
Luque
Apr '26
W
Stoltzfus
Sep '25
L
Pyfer
Jun '25
W
Rodriguez
Jun '24
L
Brady
Dec '23
Curtis32-12
L
Orolbai
Mar '26
W
Griffin
Jul '25
L
Kopylov
Jan '25
L
Allen
Apr '24
W
Barriault
Jan '24