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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Semelsberger v Matthews
Welterweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Semelsberger 11-8
VS
22-8 Matthews
6'1"
height
5'11"
171 lb
weight
170 lb
75"
reach
73"
33
age
31
Switch
stance
Orthodox
3.8
strikes landed / min
5.9
42%
striking accuracy
41%
4.2
strikes absorbed / min
2.6
54%
striking defence
47%
1.0
takedowns / 15 min
2.2
57%
takedown accuracy
40%
45%
takedown defence
50%
0.4
submissions / 15 min
1.8
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
KU
Kunath picks Jake Matthews
“I think the most likely outcome here is that Jake Matthews ends up taking his back choking him out”
$1.36
Kunath picks Jake Matthews
“I think the most likely outcome here is that Jake Matthews ends up taking his back choking him out”
$1.36
WP
We Want Picks picks Matthew Semelsberger VALUE
“Jake Matthew Semelsbergerhews should win this fight”
We Want Picks picks Matthew Semelsberger VALUE
“Jake Matthew Semelsbergerhews should win this fight”
SD
Santino DeFranco picks Jake Matthews VALUE
“I like Jake Matthews in this matchup”
Santino DeFranco picks Jake Matthews VALUE
“I like Jake Matthews in this matchup”
UG
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Matthew Semelsberger
“I'm gonna side with Jake Matthew Semelsbergerhews”
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Matthew Semelsberger
“I'm gonna side with Jake Matthew Semelsbergerhews”
1M
138 MMA picks Jake Matthews
“I'm gonna take Jake Matthews”
138 MMA picks Jake Matthews
“I'm gonna take Jake Matthews”
FF
Fight Fiend Forecast picks Jake Matthews
“I got to give it to uh Jake Matthews”
Fight Fiend Forecast picks Jake Matthews
“I got to give it to uh Jake Matthews”
TF
The ICE Files picks Jake Matthews
“I'm going with Jake Matthews on that one”
The ICE Files picks Jake Matthews
“I'm going with Jake Matthews on that one”
WP
We Want Picks picks Jake Matthews VALUE
“I'm going to say yakub former luck of the week I think he gets it done”
We Want Picks picks Jake Matthews VALUE
“I'm going to say yakub former luck of the week I think he gets it done”
WM
Walk The Line MMA picks Jake Matthews VALUE
“give me uh Jake Jake Matthews to get the job done”
Walk The Line MMA picks Jake Matthews VALUE
“give me uh Jake Jake Matthews to get the job done”
GP
Greedo Plays picks Jake Matthews
“I'm gonna take Jake Matthews in this one um but I don't know if he's gonna be able to finish be able to finish someone's burger just because again I've seen someone's Burger out there fight some really tough guys like he's gone the distance against chaos Williams and Alex Moreno those two guys hit hard so I'm starting to take Matthews to win I don't think he's gonna be able to get the Finish but at minus 240 I'm going to take Matthews to beat some of the Jedi give me him by unanimous decision”
Greedo Plays picks Jake Matthews
“I'm gonna take Jake Matthews in this one um but I don't know if he's gonna be able to finish be able to finish someone's burger just because again I've seen someone's Burger out there fight some really tough guys like he's gone the distance against chaos Williams and Alex Moreno those two guys hit hard so I'm starting to take Matthews to win I don't think he's gonna be able to get the Finish but at minus 240 I'm going to take Matthews to beat some of the Jedi give me him by unanimous decision”
WP
We Want Picks picks Jake Matthews VALUE
“Matthews is the pick here”
We Want Picks picks Jake Matthews VALUE
“Matthews is the pick here”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Semelsberger11-8
L
Radtke
Nov '24
L
Parsons
Jan '24
L
Medić
Jul '23
L
Wells
Apr '23
W
Matthews
Dec '22
Matthews22-8
W
Harris
May '26
L
Magny
Sep '25
W
Njokuani
Jul '25
W
Prado
Feb '25
W
Rowe
Jun '24