MMA Prophecy
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UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Dawson v Madsen Catchweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus12 picks · conf 32/99
Dawson 8
4 Madsen
1TMUAT pick Dawson
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Dawson 23-3-1 VS 12-2 Madsen
5'10" height —
156 lb weight —
72" reach —
32 age 41
Switch stance Orthodox
3.1 strikes landed / min 3.6
52% striking accuracy 49%
2.0 strikes absorbed / min 4.0
45% striking defence 52%
3.6 takedowns / 15 min 2.9
38% takedown accuracy 66%
57% takedown defence 62%
1.2 submissions / 15 min 0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only Go Pro →
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Grant Dawson “I'll ever so slightly still be picking Grant Grant Dawson” $1.43
SH Sherdog.com picks Mark Madsen VALUE “I've gone for Mark Madsen at plus 1888” $2.88
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Grant Dawson “my pick Grant Dawson to win this match up and moving into a matchup between tagirulan beckov taking on Nate Maness”
WP We Want Picks picks Mark Madsen VALUE “for me no thanks I'm not putting favorite money on somebody that's just chasing an arm bar”
HB Half The Battle picks Mark Madsen VALUE “I'm gonna go with Marco Madsen to get the upset here” $2.95
1M 138 MMA picks Grant Dawson VALUE “I'm gonna pick Grant Dawson here”
WP We Want Picks picks Grant Dawson “we have Grant Dawson taking on Mark Madsen”
SN SPORTS JEDI NETWORK picks Mark Madsen “I'm gonna have to favor Mark Madsen because to me personally the last couple of times I've seen Mark Madsen in the Octagon he's been very very dominant”
TF The ICE Files picks Grant Dawson VALUE “I'm gonna go with Grant Dawson on this one”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Mark Madsen VALUE “give me Matson to win by decision” $2.90
AM Artem MMA picks Grant Dawson “I'm going to be going Grant Dawson on this one here I'd like his grappling here I think he's the much better pure Grappler”
WM Walk The Line MMA picks Grant Dawson VALUE “I think that we might see Mark Madsen finally get put to sleep here in my opinion uh Grant Dawson throws sneaky head kicks” $1.43
Recent form last five, most recent first
Dawson23-3-1
W Rębecki Submission · R3 May '26
L Torres KO/TKO · R1 Dec '25
W Ferreira Decision · R3 Jan '25
W García KO/TKO · R2 Oct '24
W Solecki Decision · R3 Jun '24
Madsen12-2
L Gordon KO/TKO · R1 Nov '23
L Dawson Submission · R3 Nov '22
W Pichel Decision · R3 Apr '22
W Guida Decision · R3 Aug '21
W Hubbard Decision · R3 Mar '20