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Bautista vs LopezPreliminary Card · Catchweight
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Magny vs RodriguezMain Card · Welterweight
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Ulanbekov vs ManessMain Card · Flyweight
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Dawson vs MadsenMain Card · Catchweight
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Maverick vs YoungPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
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Bautista vs LopezPreliminary Card · Catchweight
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Viana vs FreyPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
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Muñoz Jr. vs SholinianPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Bautista v Lopez
Catchweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Bautista 16-3
VS
10-2 Lopez
5'9"
height
5'10"
135 lb
weight
138 lb
69"
reach
73"
33
age
32
Switch
stance
Switch
5.3
strikes landed / min
4.4
47%
striking accuracy
45%
3.9
strikes absorbed / min
5.2
54%
striking defence
56%
1.9
takedowns / 15 min
0.0
33%
takedown accuracy
0%
66%
takedown defence
73%
0.9
submissions / 15 min
0.3
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
WP
We Want Picks picks Benito Lopez VALUE
“I think he's just that much better Mario Bautista was dangerous at one point but he's a real estate agent now I think there's a finish here”
SH
Sherdog.com picks Mario Bautista
“minus 285 for Mario Bautista I think the favorite will win that as well like Polyana Viana as well”
$1.35
UG
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Mario Bautista
“I'm siding with Mario Bautista to win this match up and like I said it's going to be the total dusteration package”
WP
We Want Picks picks Mario Bautista VALUE
“my pick for this fight is Mario Bautista”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Mario Bautista VALUE
“I'm more so on the Mario Batista side here”
HB
Half The Battle picks Mario Bautista VALUE
“give me Mario Batista to just be more active and kind of Welcome this dude back”
$1.44
1M
138 MMA picks Mario Bautista VALUE
“I'm going to take the Mario Bautista side”
SD
Santino DeFranco picks Mario Bautista
“I assume Mario Bautista will win”
WP
We Want Picks picks Mario Bautista VALUE
“I am loading up on him putting him in parlay's confidence Scale 1-10 he is an eight or nine I think he is my most confident play on this card I think he gets this done early maybe goes to the wrestling but could find The Knockout as well I'm Mario all the way”
WP
We Want Picks picks Mario Bautista
“Mario's the pick Benito is wild he's fun but that wild come forward style can get him taken down and submitted or at least controlled so Mario's the pick”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Bautista16-3
W
Oliveira
Feb '26
L
Nurmagomedov
Oct '25
W
Mix
Jun '25
W
Aldo
Oct '24
W
Simón
Jan '24
Lopez10-2
L
Bautista
Nov '22
W
Morales
Jul '19
L
Bermudez
Feb '19
W
Morales
Dec '17