MMA Prophecy
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UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Bautista v Lopez Catchweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
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Consensus9 picks · conf 27/99
Bautista 9
0 Lopez
H1USSA pick Bautista
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Bautista 16-3 VS 10-2 Lopez
5'9" height 5'10"
135 lb weight 138 lb
69" reach 73"
33 age 32
Switch stance Switch
5.3 strikes landed / min 4.4
47% striking accuracy 45%
3.9 strikes absorbed / min 5.2
54% striking defence 56%
1.9 takedowns / 15 min 0.0
33% takedown accuracy 0%
66% takedown defence 73%
0.9 submissions / 15 min 0.3
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
WP We Want Picks picks Benito Lopez VALUE “I think he's just that much better Mario Bautista was dangerous at one point but he's a real estate agent now I think there's a finish here”
SH Sherdog.com picks Mario Bautista “minus 285 for Mario Bautista I think the favorite will win that as well like Polyana Viana as well” $1.35
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Mario Bautista “I'm siding with Mario Bautista to win this match up and like I said it's going to be the total dusteration package”
WP We Want Picks picks Mario Bautista VALUE “my pick for this fight is Mario Bautista”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Mario Bautista VALUE “I'm more so on the Mario Batista side here”
HB Half The Battle picks Mario Bautista VALUE “give me Mario Batista to just be more active and kind of Welcome this dude back” $1.44
1M 138 MMA picks Mario Bautista VALUE “I'm going to take the Mario Bautista side”
SD Santino DeFranco picks Mario Bautista “I assume Mario Bautista will win”
WP We Want Picks picks Mario Bautista VALUE “I'm going Mario Batista here” $1.35
WM Walk The Line MMA picks Mario Bautista “I think Batista is going to get the job done here” $1.40
WP We Want Picks picks Mario Bautista VALUE “I am loading up on him putting him in parlay's confidence Scale 1-10 he is an eight or nine I think he is my most confident play on this card I think he gets this done early maybe goes to the wrestling but could find The Knockout as well I'm Mario all the way”
WP We Want Picks picks Mario Bautista “Mario's the pick Benito is wild he's fun but that wild come forward style can get him taken down and submitted or at least controlled so Mario's the pick”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Bautista16-3
W Oliveira Submission · R2 Feb '26
L Nurmagomedov Decision · R3 Oct '25
W Mix Decision · R3 Jun '25
W Aldo Decision · R3 Oct '24
W Simón Decision · R3 Jan '24
Lopez10-2
L Bautista Submission · R1 Nov '22
W Morales Decision · R3 Jul '19
L Bermudez Submission · R1 Feb '19
W Morales Decision · R3 Dec '17