MMA Prophecy
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UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Hadley v Candelario Catchweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
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Consensus10 picks · conf 30/99
Hadley 10
0 Candelario
H1MUST pick Hadley
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Hadley 11-4 VS 8-3 Candelario
— height 5'8"
— weight 128 lb
— reach 68"
29 age 35
Southpaw stance Southpaw
3.8 strikes landed / min 4.0
43% striking accuracy 46%
4.2 strikes absorbed / min 5.2
61% striking defence 44%
0.3 takedowns / 15 min 2.3
11% takedown accuracy 36%
54% takedown defence 53%
1.1 submissions / 15 min 0.3
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Jake Hadley VALUE “I'm picking Jake Hadley to win” $1.36
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Jake Hadley “I'm gonna side with Jake Hadley to win this match up I think his Jiu Jitsu should be the result you know if this fight goes to the mat swim to the back rear naked that's the win”
WP We Want Picks picks Jake Hadley VALUE “I'm a Jake Hadley player all the way”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Jake Hadley VALUE “I think he can go out here just get a ton of takedowns a ton of control time”
HB Half The Battle picks Jake Hadley “I'm a lean Hadley” $1.39
1M 138 MMA picks Jake Hadley VALUE “Jake Hadley's the official pick”
SD Santino DeFranco picks Jake Hadley “I like Jake Hadley Hadley here”
WP We Want Picks picks Jake Hadley VALUE “I think Jake Hadley wins this fight” $1.40
TF The ICE Files picks Jake Hadley “my pick is Jake Hadley” $1.37
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Jake Hadley VALUE “give me Jake Hadley to win give me Jake Hadley to win by decision” $1.41
WM Walk The Line MMA picks Jake Hadley “Hadley's the better fighter here and he's gonna get the job done here” $1.35
WP We Want Picks picks Jake Hadley VALUE “so my pick for this matchup is Jake”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Hadley11-4
L Smotherman Decision · R3 Oct '24
W Loughran Decision · R3 Jul '24
L Johnson Decision · R3 May '24
L Durden Decision · R3 Aug '23
W Gordon KO/TKO · R1 Mar '23
Candelario8-3
L Hadley Submission · R2 Nov '22
L Taira Decision · R3 May '22