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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Usman v Pauga Heavyweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus7 picks · conf 21/99
Usman 4
3 Pauga
SDKW pick Usman
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Usman 12-4 VS 7-3 Pauga
6'2" height —
244 lb weight —
79" reach —
37 age 38
Orthodox stance Orthodox
3.9 strikes landed / min 4.5
44% striking accuracy 62%
3.2 strikes absorbed / min 2.7
57% striking defence 58%
2.5 takedowns / 15 min 0.4
66% takedown accuracy 7%
61% takedown defence 100%
2.0 submissions / 15 min 0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
KU Kunath picks Mohammed Usman “i think Mohammed Usman could win or you're just punting a guy who probably doesn't get knocked out”
WP We Want Picks picks Mohammed Usman “I still think Mohammed Usman uzman gets this done”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Zac Pauga “power is not a heavyweight he's a very very small heavyweight”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Mohammed Usman “if there's a finish in This heavyweight fight I do think it's from Mohammed Usman”
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Zac Pauga “i think zack palga's just sharper more technical so that's going to be my prediction”
SH Sherdog.com picks Mohammed Usman VALUE “I'm going for ariana lipski uh to beat priscilla cachuera” $1.56
AM Artem MMA picks Zac Pauga “i'm picking pogo to win here”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Mohammed Usman
TF The ICE Files picks Zac Pauga VALUE “I'm going with Zach all day”
WP We Want Picks picks Zac Pauga “i'm going to go with just kanan on the picks”
WP We Want Picks picks Mohammed Usman “i think it's a very slight very slight lean towards usman”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Usman12-4
W Abdelwahab Decision · R3 Jun '25
L Petersen Decision · R3 Jul '24
L Parkin Decision · R3 Mar '24
W Collier Decision · R3 Sep '23
W Pauga KO/TKO · R2 Aug '22
Pauga7-3
L Guskov KO/TKO · R1 Feb '24
L Bukauskas Decision · R3 Jun '23
W Wright Decision · R3 Feb '23
L Usman KO/TKO · R2 Aug '22