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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Spivac v Sakai Heavyweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus7 picks · conf 21/99
Spivac 5
2 Sakai
T1TDW pick Spivac
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Spivac 17-6 VS 16-5-1 Sakai
6'3" height —
251 lb weight —
78" reach —
31 age 35
Orthodox stance Orthodox
3.5 strikes landed / min 4.6
49% striking accuracy 49%
3.7 strikes absorbed / min 3.8
50% striking defence 48%
4.6 takedowns / 15 min 0.2
65% takedown accuracy 40%
70% takedown defence 56%
0.7 submissions / 15 min 0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
1C 101MMA Clinic picks Serghei Spivac “i wouldn't be surprised if Serghei Spivac gets a tko sometime in the second round um just ground and pound” $1.39
KU Kunath picks Augusto Sakai “i think that he goes under owned he's riding a three-fight knockout losing streak”
WP We Want Picks picks Serghei Spivac VALUE “Serghei Spivac minus 210 i got him he's now minus 300 that is a dramatic line move and the reality is Augusto Sakai is a good striker but he's a little low volume and Serghei Spivac's probably just going to take him down and deal with it there” $1.48
WP We Want Picks picks Serghei Spivac VALUE “I see Sergey Serghei Spivac getting the takedowns winning the fight”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Augusto Sakai “i'm kind of feeling like ranger could steal a competitive decision here” $2.95
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Serghei Spivac VALUE “I am personally on the speed vac side” $1.61
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Augusto Sakai “Augusto Sakai is a very good finisher with serious power”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Serghei Spivac
TF The ICE Files picks Serghei Spivac VALUE “I'm going Serghei Spivac all day”
TG THE MMA GURU picks Serghei Spivac “i'm going to be going with Serghei Spivac”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Serghei Spivac VALUE “i'm picking a gusto sakai” $2.80
WP We Want Picks picks Serghei Spivac VALUE “i think that's exactly what's gonna happen with sergey spevak i'm probably gonna throw a money line bet on sergey speak back in this fight”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Spivac17-6
W Delija Decision · R3 Feb '26
L Cortes-Acosta Decision · R3 Jun '25
L Almeida KO/TKO · R1 Jan '25
W Tybura Submission · R1 Aug '24
L Gane KO/TKO · R2 Sep '23
Sakai16-5-1
W Mayes Decision · R3 Feb '23
L Spivac KO/TKO · R2 Aug '22
L Tuivasa KO/TKO · R2 Dec '21
L Rozenstruik KO/TKO · R1 Jun '21
L Overeem KO/TKO · R5 Sep '20