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UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Emmett
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Holland v Means Welterweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus6 picks · conf 18/99
Holland 5
1 Means
HSTWM pick Holland
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Holland 28-15 VS 33-17-1 Means
6'3" height 6'2"
170 lb weight 171 lb
81" reach 75"
33 age 42
Orthodox stance Orthodox
4.2 strikes landed / min 5.0
49% striking accuracy 49%
3.2 strikes absorbed / min 3.6
50% striking defence 60%
0.8 takedowns / 15 min 1.1
38% takedown accuracy 40%
54% takedown defence 64%
0.6 submissions / 15 min 0.2
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only Go Pro →
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
WP We Want Picks picks Kevin Holland VALUE “i do like Kevin Holland here i think he gets it done” $90.00
SH Sherdog.com picks Kevin Holland VALUE “I'm going for martin held uh and he is uh he is plus 135 here” $2.35
SH Sherdog.com picks Tim Means “Kevin Holland is a minus uh 260 favor over Tim Means” $3.60
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Tim Means
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Kevin Holland
HB Half The Battle picks Tim Means VALUE “my pick is hauling” $3.50
HB Half The Battle picks Kevin Holland “give me Kevin Holland somewhere along the way” $1.33
SD Santino DeFranco picks Kevin Holland VALUE “Kevin Holland minus 265 Tim Means plus 212” $1.38
TF The ICE Files picks Kevin Holland VALUE “i'm going with Kevin Holland”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Holland28-15
W Brown Decision · R3 Apr '26
L Malott Decision · R3 Oct '25
L Rodriguez Decision · R3 Jul '25
W Luque Submission · R2 Jun '25
W Nelson Decision · R3 Mar '25
Means33-17-1
L McGee Submission · R1 Oct '24
L Medić KO/TKO · R1 Apr '24
W Fialho KO/TKO · R3 Sep '23
L Morono Submission · R2 May '23
L Griffin Decision · R3 Oct '22