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BEST PRICE Prophecy read du Plessis v Tavares Middleweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
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Consensus7 picks · conf 21/99
du Plessis 5
2 Tavares
UATDW pick du Plessis
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
du Plessis 23-3 VS 21-12 Tavares
6'1" height 6'1"
185 lb weight 186 lb
76" reach 74"
32 age 38
Switch stance Orthodox
4.9 strikes landed / min 3.0
53% striking accuracy 64%
3.3 strikes absorbed / min 2.6
58% striking defence 54%
3.1 takedowns / 15 min 2.4
45% takedown accuracy 35%
50% takedown defence 55%
0.9 submissions / 15 min 0.8
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only Go Pro →
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
RU RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Brad Tavares VALUE “my pick is in your knees I I think he gets this done and hands Uriah his first mission loss of his career”
WP We Want Picks picks Dricus du Plessis VALUE “i do think dries drakis wins this fight” $81.00
MJ MMA JOEY picks Brad Tavares VALUE “i lean Brad Tavares”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Dricus du Plessis VALUE “i think if Dricus du Plessis wins it's probably inside the distance it's probably within the first two rounds” $81.00
AM Artem MMA picks Brad Tavares “i'm picking drinkers duplicits to win this one here”
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Dricus du Plessis “i'm taking Dricus du Plessis i'm still riding the dracu's double c train”
WP We Want Picks picks Dricus du Plessis VALUE “i do think dries dracus wins this fight and honestly i i will probably have him in my draftkings lineup”
TF The ICE Files picks Dricus du Plessis “i'm gonna go with Dricus du Plessis duplessies on this one”
WP We Want Picks picks Dricus du Plessis “i do think i'm leaning towards dracus here”
AM Artem MMA picks Dricus du Plessis “i'll start with Dricus du Plessis for now”
Recent form last five, most recent first
du Plessis23-3
L Chimaev Decision · R5 Aug '25
W Strickland Decision · R5 Feb '25
W Adesanya Submission · R4 Aug '24
W Strickland Decision · R5 Jan '24
W Whittaker KO/TKO · R2 Jul '23
Tavares21-12
L Anders Decision · R3 Mar '26
L Bryczek KO/TKO · R3 Sep '25
W Meerschaert Decision · R3 Apr '25
L Jun-yong Decision · R3 Oct '24
L Rodrigues KO/TKO · R3 Feb '24