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Dawson vs GordonMain Card · Lightweight
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RF
Vera vs FontMain Card · Catchweight
AA
JC
Arlovski vs CollierMain Card · Heavyweight
JB
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Brito vs FiliMain Card · Featherweight
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Dawson vs GordonMain Card · Lightweight
DE
TC
Elkins vs ConnellyMain Card · Featherweight
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Jotko vs MeerschaertMain Card · Middleweight
AR
CS
Romanov vs ShermanPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
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DL
Figueiredo vs LacerdaPreliminary Card · Flyweight
GG
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Green vs LainessePreliminary Card · Welterweight
NL
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Levy vs BreedenPreliminary Card · Lightweight
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Young vs MazanyPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Dawson v Gordon
Lightweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Dawson 23-3-1
VS
21-8 Gordon
5'10"
height
5'9"
156 lb
weight
156 lb
72"
reach
68"
32
age
37
Switch
stance
Orthodox
3.1
strikes landed / min
2.9
52%
striking accuracy
48%
2.0
strikes absorbed / min
2.0
45%
striking defence
62%
3.6
takedowns / 15 min
2.6
38%
takedown accuracy
61%
57%
takedown defence
81%
1.2
submissions / 15 min
1.2
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
WP
We Want Picks picks Grant Dawson VALUE
“i like Grant Dawson to win here”
We Want Picks picks Grant Dawson VALUE
“i like Grant Dawson to win here”
SH
Sherdog.com picks Grant Dawson
“Jared Gordon very good fight against Grant Dawson minus 175”
$1.57
Sherdog.com picks Grant Dawson
“Jared Gordon very good fight against Grant Dawson minus 175”
$1.57
WP
We Want Picks picks Grant Dawson VALUE
“i like Grant Dawson to get the win i do think he'll put up solid draftkings numbers as well”
We Want Picks picks Grant Dawson VALUE
“i like Grant Dawson to get the win i do think he'll put up solid draftkings numbers as well”
SD
Santino DeFranco picks Grant Dawson VALUE
“he gets beat up until the other person is just so tired and then he jumps on something and wins”
Santino DeFranco picks Grant Dawson VALUE
“he gets beat up until the other person is just so tired and then he jumps on something and wins”
WP
We Want Picks picks Grant Dawson VALUE
“jared gordon is a good wrestler with solid pressure and striking”
We Want Picks picks Grant Dawson VALUE
“jared gordon is a good wrestler with solid pressure and striking”
UG
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Jared Gordon VALUE
“i'm gonna side with Jared Gordon i think the cardio maybe wins the fight”
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Jared Gordon VALUE
“i'm gonna side with Jared Gordon i think the cardio maybe wins the fight”
MP
MMA Prophecy picks Grant Dawson VALUE
“i'm gonna take Grant Dawson to get our win”
MMA Prophecy picks Grant Dawson VALUE
“i'm gonna take Grant Dawson to get our win”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Grant Dawson VALUE
“i'm picking Grant Dawson to win but it is concerning... i think he can out grapple uh jared gordon in this matchup”
$1.72
MMA EXPERTS picks Grant Dawson VALUE
“i'm picking Grant Dawson to win but it is concerning... i think he can out grapple uh jared gordon in this matchup”
$1.72
GP
Greedo Plays picks Grant Dawson
“go and Grant Dawson with this one by decision”
Greedo Plays picks Grant Dawson
“go and Grant Dawson with this one by decision”
WP
We Want Picks picks Grant Dawson VALUE
“so Grant Dawson is the pick another guy i need him to stick to the wrestling and then we should be good if he does”
We Want Picks picks Grant Dawson VALUE
“so Grant Dawson is the pick another guy i need him to stick to the wrestling and then we should be good if he does”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Dawson23-3-1
W
Rębecki
May '26
L
Torres
Dec '25
W
Ferreira
Jan '25
W
García
Oct '24
W
Solecki
Jun '24
Gordon21-8
L
Miller
May '26
L
García
Sep '25
W
Moisés
May '25
L
Haqparast
Jun '24
W
Madsen
Nov '23