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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Elkins v Connelly Featherweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus11 picks · conf 31/99
Elkins 4
7 Connelly
GUAD pick Elkins
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Elkins 29-11 VS 14-8 Connelly
5'10" height —
145 lb weight —
71" reach —
42 age 40
Orthodox stance Orthodox
3.4 strikes landed / min 3.3
38% striking accuracy 51%
3.2 strikes absorbed / min 3.0
51% striking defence 50%
2.9 takedowns / 15 min 0.3
34% takedown accuracy 14%
56% takedown defence 60%
1.1 submissions / 15 min 0.3
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
WP We Want Picks picks Tristan Connelly VALUE “i actually think Tristan Connelly is a pretty live underdog here i think he can get it done”
SH Sherdog.com picks Tristan Connelly VALUE “i'm going for Tristan Connelly at plus 140 uh to win this fight” $2.40
WP We Want Picks picks Darren Elkins VALUE “i'm going there it uploads okay yeah we're split here i mean i don't necessarily disagree with the darin elkins pick and he's the safer pick he's the more logical pick style-wise he should win”
WP We Want Picks picks Tristan Connelly VALUE “i think tristan can avoid the takedowns land those big punches and sneak out a win i just think it's a steep drop off for Darren Elkins here i think tristan connolly gets it done”
SD Santino DeFranco picks Tristan Connelly VALUE “i think figareto is by far the pick here people want to get mad at discount figuredo he fought two guys that offered non-stop pressure”
WP We Want Picks picks Darren Elkins VALUE “darren elkins is incredibly tough and absolutely never out of a fight”
WP We Want Picks picks Tristan Connelly VALUE “i think tristan can avoid the takedowns land those big punches and sneak out a win”
TF The ICE Files picks Tristan Connelly VALUE “i'm liking Tristan Connelly in this one”
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Darren Elkins “i'm gonna take darren alkins to win a wrestling match up against Tristan Connelly”
DR Dan Hardy | Full Reptile picks Darren Elkins “i think Darren Elkins might if he hurts Darren Elkins but i don't think it Darren Elkins is a featherweight... i'm gonna go with Darren Elkins”
WM Walk The Line MMA picks Tristan Connelly VALUE “i will pick Tristan Connelly to win the fight” $2.40
MP MMA Prophecy picks Tristan Connelly VALUE “i think tristan NOT_IN_ROSTER_14 is probably going to get a win he's got a better striking and if it goes to the ground he's got the bjj he's not got a better wrestling but he's got a bit of ej and striking because of that we're going with Tristan Connelly to get their win”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Elkins29-11
L Erosa KO/TKO · R1 Apr '25
W Pineda Decision · R3 Oct '24
W Brown Submission · R3 Oct '23
L Pearce Decision · R3 Dec '22
W Connelly Decision · R3 Apr '22
Connelly14-8
L Elkins Decision · R3 Apr '22
L Sabatini Decision · R3 Apr '21
W Pereira Decision · R3 Sep '19