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Elkins vs ConnellyMain Card · Featherweight
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Romanov vs ShermanPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Figueiredo v Lacerda
Flyweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Figueiredo 13-5-1
VS
11-6 Lacerda
5'6"
height
5'6"
125 lb
weight
125 lb
68"
reach
70"
36
age
30
Southpaw
stance
Switch
2.0
strikes landed / min
4.0
61%
striking accuracy
45%
2.6
strikes absorbed / min
8.3
61%
striking defence
34%
2.5
takedowns / 15 min
2.3
75%
takedown accuracy
50%
76%
takedown defence
0%
0.4
submissions / 15 min
1.2
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
WP
We Want Picks picks Francisco Figueiredo VALUE
“i like figareto to get this done”
We Want Picks picks Francisco Figueiredo VALUE
“i like figareto to get this done”
SH
Sherdog.com picks Daniel Lacerda
“uh Daniel Lacerda minus 135 francisco figurative plus 105”
$1.74
Sherdog.com picks Daniel Lacerda
“uh Daniel Lacerda minus 135 francisco figurative plus 105”
$1.74
WP
We Want Picks picks Francisco Figueiredo VALUE
“so i'm going underdog here Francisco Figueiredo”
We Want Picks picks Francisco Figueiredo VALUE
“so i'm going underdog here Francisco Figueiredo”
WP
We Want Picks picks Daniel Lacerda VALUE
“daniel is a first-rounder and he's a first-runner bus guy”
We Want Picks picks Daniel Lacerda VALUE
“daniel is a first-rounder and he's a first-runner bus guy”
WP
We Want Picks picks Francisco Figueiredo VALUE
“i think Francisco Figueiredo should be uh the slight favorite here”
We Want Picks picks Francisco Figueiredo VALUE
“i think Francisco Figueiredo should be uh the slight favorite here”
UG
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Daniel Lacerda VALUE
“i'll take daniel da silva to win this fight”
$1.83
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Daniel Lacerda VALUE
“i'll take daniel da silva to win this fight”
$1.83
WP
We Want Picks picks Francisco Figueiredo VALUE
“i think it should be a slight edge for figuerado i think people spend too much time... and in this specific matchup i do like figuerado to get the takedowns and grind out a win so Francisco Figueiredo is the pick”
We Want Picks picks Francisco Figueiredo VALUE
“i think it should be a slight edge for figuerado i think people spend too much time... and in this specific matchup i do like figuerado to get the takedowns and grind out a win so Francisco Figueiredo is the pick”
AM
Artem MMA picks Francisco Figueiredo
“i'm going to be going with the the figaro brother here by a decision on this one here he did lose to Jared Gordon which isn't really the greatest look in the world but i will still be picking him to win the fight here”
Artem MMA picks Francisco Figueiredo
“i'm going to be going with the the figaro brother here by a decision on this one here he did lose to Jared Gordon which isn't really the greatest look in the world but i will still be picking him to win the fight here”
WP
We Want Picks picks Daniel Lacerda
“i like evan elder here because he is the more talented well-rounded guy”
We Want Picks picks Daniel Lacerda
“i like evan elder here because he is the more talented well-rounded guy”
WP
We Want Picks picks Francisco Figueiredo
“i am going to go with grant here but if his cardio slips up even a tiny bit sergey's pressure is going to steal those rounds so i'm going with dwight grant here he is the pick”
We Want Picks picks Francisco Figueiredo
“i am going to go with grant here but if his cardio slips up even a tiny bit sergey's pressure is going to steal those rounds so i'm going with dwight grant here he is the pick”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Figueiredo13-5-1
L
Albazi
Aug '22
W
Lacerda
Apr '22
L
Gordon
Jul '21
W
Rivera
Jan '21
Lacerda11-6
L
Chairez
Feb '24
L
Altamirano
Aug '22
L
Figueiredo
Apr '22
L
Molina
Oct '21