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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Barberena v Brown Welterweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus11 picks · conf 31/99
Barberena 3
8 Brown
USD pick Barberena
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Barberena 18-12 VS 26-19 Brown
6'0" height 6'0"
186 lb weight 170 lb
72" reach 75"
37 age 45
Southpaw stance Orthodox
5.3 strikes landed / min 3.8
48% striking accuracy 55%
4.6 strikes absorbed / min 2.9
44% striking defence 55%
0.1 takedowns / 15 min 1.7
22% takedown accuracy 46%
50% takedown defence 63%
0.3 submissions / 15 min 1.3
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
MP MMA Prophecy picks Matt Brown VALUE “Matt Brown is the favorite i think... i'm gonna go with brown barbarina to get a win”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Matt Brown VALUE “i think Matt Brown at 8 200 a very interesting play i'm going to have quite a bit” $1.53
WP We Want Picks picks Matt Brown VALUE “i like brian barber to win barbarina to win but pick your side this is a straight up pick em as far as draftkings is concerned and if you want to put one of these guys in your lineup i do think it's a decision and i think it's a somewhat well-scored decision because the volume is going to be crazy so if i got brian barbaran at 8 000 bucks and he scored me 80 points i'm not pissed”
HB Half The Battle picks Matt Brown “Matt Brown is obviously a fan favorite ohio there's no doubt about it well deserved”
HB Half The Battle picks Bryan Barberena “another homecoming for Matt Brown i mean i have a feeling you might have been in attendance when he fought eric silva”
SH Sherdog.com picks Bryan Barberena VALUE “i'm gonna go for Bryan Barberena against Matt Brown” $2.02
WP We Want Picks picks Matt Brown VALUE “i like brian barber to win”
WI WEIGHING IN picks Matt Brown VALUE “I'm taking Matt Brown”
SD Santino DeFranco picks Matt Brown “No direct quote”
PP Pick Pocket Podcast picks Matt Brown VALUE “Matt Brown for a third round pick it's going to the colts”
DR Dan Hardy | Full Reptile picks Bryan Barberena VALUE “None”
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Bryan Barberena VALUE “gun to the head Bryan Barberena”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Barberena18-12
L Meerschaert Submission · R2 Mar '24
L Muradov Decision · R3 Jul '23
L Nelson Submission · R1 Mar '23
L Anjos Submission · R2 Dec '22
W Lawler KO/TKO · R2 Jul '22
Brown26-19
W McGee KO/TKO · R1 May '23
L Barberena Decision · R3 Mar '22
W Lima KO/TKO · R2 Jun '21
L Condit Decision · R3 Jan '21
L Baeza KO/TKO · R2 May '20