MMA Prophecy
🌐BEST
UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Daukaus
Choose a fight to analyse
CB CD Blaydes vs DaukausMain Card · Heavyweight AG JW Grasso vs WoodMain Card · Women'S Flyweight BB MB Barberena vs BrownMain Card · Welterweight KK AA Kara-France vs AskarovMain Card · Flyweight NM MG Magny vs GriffinMain Card · Welterweight MD VB Diakiese vs BorshchevMain Card · Lightweight SM KR McMann vs RosaPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight CG DB Gutiérrez vs BatgerelPreliminary Card · Bantamweight AK DT Khizriev vs TiuliulinPreliminary Card · Middleweight MF JM Fiorot vs MaiaPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight MN DD Nicolau vs DvořákPreliminary Card · Flyweight LS BS Saldaña vs SouzaPreliminary Card · Featherweight
BEST PRICE Prophecy read Nicolau v Dvořák Flyweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
New here? Create a free account for the full leaderboard & bet tracker
Consensus10 picks · conf 30/99
Nicolau 3
7 Dvořák
SDW pick Nicolau
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Nicolau 19-6-1 VS 20-6 Dvořák
5'6" height —
125 lb weight —
66" reach —
33 age 34
Orthodox stance Orthodox
3.3 strikes landed / min 3.5
51% striking accuracy 43%
3.0 strikes absorbed / min 3.3
65% striking defence 59%
1.2 takedowns / 15 min 0.6
43% takedown accuracy 30%
90% takedown defence 70%
0.8 submissions / 15 min 0.2
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only Go Pro →
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
ME MMA EXPERTS picks David Dvořák VALUE “i think dvorak by decision um is fairly likely and i think david devore gets the win here” $1.80
MP MMA Prophecy picks David Dvořák VALUE “i'm going to go with david devrock to get a win”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Matheus Nicolau VALUE “i think it's a very close and competitive fight i also think nick allows a very good ground game”
WP We Want Picks picks Matheus Nicolau VALUE “i like Matheus Nicolau to win 7 800 i will probably spend that because if i spend 7 800 and i get 77 points out of him i'm happy with that so i like nicole i think he's a good player at 7 700”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks David Dvořák VALUE “i'm gonna go to the dvorak side” $1.80
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Matheus Nicolau “i'm thinking nikolao gets him wins all three rounds”
HB Half The Battle picks Matheus Nicolau “i just feel like when he starts eating these shots he's not going to quite like it as much”
HB Half The Battle picks David Dvořák “i slightly leaned to vorack here”
WP We Want Picks picks Matheus Nicolau VALUE “i like Matheus Nicolau to win this fight”
WP We Want Picks picks Matheus Nicolau VALUE “my pick is gonna be Matheus Nicolau”
WP We Want Picks picks Matheus Nicolau VALUE “i picked nicolae”
SD Santino DeFranco picks Matheus Nicolau VALUE “i think we see kind of a dominant victory from nikolau”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Nicolau19-6-1
L Almabayev Decision · R3 Oct '24
L Perez KO/TKO · R2 Apr '24
L Royval KO/TKO · R1 Apr '23
W Schnell KO/TKO · R2 Dec '22
W Dvořák Decision · R3 Mar '22
Dvořák20-6
L Erceg Decision · R3 Jun '23
L Kape Decision · R3 Dec '22
L Nicolau Decision · R3 Mar '22
W Ronderos Submission · R1 May '21
W Espinosa Decision · R3 Sep '20