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YoungPastey
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · breakdown

UFC 309 Bets Props Leans and Parlays - Betting Breakdown

YO YoungPastey60% hit
19 months ago 7W–9L · -2.6u
Picks, timestamped entry price locked at moment of pick · line tracked since · best price in any region · close = day before the event
SM Stipe Miocic v Jon Jones MONEYLINE LOST
“we have Jon Jones plus Charles Olivera we got it at minus 175 for 1.35 units I think this is a great play obviously Jon Jones heavy favorite um former heavyweight not former current heavyweight champion going against the former heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic”
Line since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$6.40 close$6.40
entry: Betsson · best in any region at publish
JJ Jon Jones v Stipe Miocic MONEYLINE WON
“we have Jon Jones plus Charles Olivera we got it at minus 175 for 1.35 units I think this is a great play obviously Jon Jones heavy favorite um former heavyweight not former current heavyweight champion going against the former heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic it's an obvious confident piece of a parlay”
Line since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.17 close$1.17
entry: Paddy Power · best in any region at publish
CO Charles Oliveira v Michael Chandler MONEYLINE WON
“and then we had Charles Oliveira at a good price too to drop it down to- 175 this is you know a little Juiced it's really at the tippy top of where I really would put any money on um again 1.35 units is what we're laying on it”
Line since pick CLV −3%
◆ entry$1.40 close$1.44
entry: BetMGM · best in any region at publish
MT Marcin Tybura v Jhonata Diniz MONEYLINE WON
“lean number two marcine tybera at minus 150 now this one kind of made me mad too he was at plus money at one point a few days ago now he's already dropped at minus 150 I think everyone sees that wrestling threat and if he can hold you not you know Jhonata Diniz to the ground I think it's a WP so marcine Tyra it's minus 15 is still not bad”
Line since pick CLV −1%
◆ entry$1.73 close$1.75
entry: Paddy Power · best in any region at publish
KS Karine Silva v Viviane Araújo PROP · SUBMISSION LOST
“lean number three we have Karine Karine Silva by sub okay um this will kind of you'll see another play in or not a play I'm staying away from in stay aways which kind of correlates to this but Karine Karine Silva by sub she has four Subs in her last five fights yeah V's good on the ground but anybody can if you make one little mistake you're subbed right there so Karen Karine Silva by sub plus 375 pretty good play”
Moneyline since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.38 close$1.38
Silva’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted · analyst stated $4.75
JL James Llontop v Maurício Ruffy MONEYLINE LOST
“lean number four Maurício Ruffy by TKO or KO at minus 150 or by decision at plus 3 00 I think he gets it done I don't think he's getting a sub if you think James Llontop can withhold and you know not get knocked out by ruffy then go ahead throw a decision on it but I think he gets KO to be honest with you”
Line since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$7.50 close$7.50
entry: PlayUp · best in any region at publish
MR Maurício Ruffy v James Llontop PROP · KO/TKO LOST
“lean number four Maurício Ruffy by TKO or KO at minus 150 or by decision at plus 3 00 I think he gets it done I don't think he's getting a sub if you think James Llontop can withhold and you know not get knocked out by ruffy then go ahead throw a decision on it but I think he gets KO to be honest with you”
Moneyline since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.12 close$1.12
Ruffy’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted · analyst stated $1.67
EM Eduarda Moura v Veronica Hardy MONEYLINE WON
“lean number five we have Eduarda Moura at plus 130 still I mean h still something I could add to my official plays I think she's she was my pick on the fight I think she gets it done I think she has the better wrestling advantage on the ground and her striking is not terrible Veronica Hardy's striking is better I'll give her that but she's going to you know use that striking to get get the fight to the ground my thinking at watermore is a good Underdog play plus 130 not too bad”
Line since pick CLV +6%
◆ entry$2.35 close$2.22
entry: ESPN BET · best in any region at publish
VH Veronica Hardy v Eduarda Moura MONEYLINE LOST
“lean number five we have Eduarda Moura at plus 130 still I mean h still something I could add to my official plays I think she's she was my pick on the fight I think she gets it done I think she has the better wrestling advantage on the ground and her striking is not terrible Veronica Hardy's striking is better I'll give her that but she's going to you know use that striking to get get the fight to the ground my thinking at watermore is a good Underdog play plus 130 not too bad”
Line since pick CLV −3%
◆ entry$1.74 close$1.80
entry: Caesars · best in any region at publish
MC Michael Chandler v Charles Oliveira MONEYLINE LOST
“lean number seven we got the over one and a half rounds on Charles Oliveira plus Michael Chandler that's at minus 105 almost at plus money I know the their first fight stuff got wild and you right off the bat right but I think they're going to be a little more calculated and take it a little more slow in this fight I think go at least goes over one and a half rounds”
Line since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$3.25 close$3.25
entry: PlayUp · best in any region at publish
JD Jhonata Diniz v Marcin Tybura MONEYLINE LOST
“third stay away we have the Marcin Tybura versus Jhonata Diniz rounds my thinking and logic and my staying away from the rounds prop on this is look Jhonata Diniz is live to get The Knockout right Tyber is a little bit older he got subbed by pivic pretty easily so if Jhonata Diniz gets one good punch in there [ __ ] could get over I mean that's all it's he's he's got he's a puncher's chance right which that's ultimately what I didn't pick him cuz I think he doesn't really have a good wrestling base and Ty bur is going to expose that”
Line since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$2.28 close$2.28
entry: Betsson · best in any region at publish
VA Viviane Araújo v Karine Silva MONEYLINE WON
“my last stay away is the Viviane Araújo versus Karine Silva rounds and I was saying I you know this just correlates to that Karina sub uh Karine Silva sub prop I I think she's live to get the sub so I really wouldn't trust the over over on this fight”
Line since pick CLV −3%
◆ entry$3.40 close$3.50
entry: BetOnline.ag · best in any region at publish
PC Paul Craig v Bo Nickal MONEYLINE LOST
“the Bo Nickal vers Paul Craig fight look b nickel has been not fraud checked but has been caught in some suspect positions in his last few fights against some subpar competition like the Cody brunch fight come on now so I don't really trust him and I think when he actually goes up against a tough true opponent I'm looking to fade him but I think he gets it done in this fight”
Line since pick CLV −3%
◆ entry$9.50 close$9.75
entry: BetOnline.ag · best in any region at publish
MG Mickey Gall v Ramiz Brahimaj MONEYLINE LOST
“first stay away the Mickey Gall Ramiz Brahimaj fight two cans man two bottom of the barrel Fighters I don't want to lay any money on it to be honest with you um if if you want to go ahead but brahimaj was my pick I don't I'm just not laying any money on this one to be honest with you”
Line since pick CLV +3%
◆ entry$1.80 close$1.74
entry: ESPN BET · best in any region at publish
RB Ramiz Brahimaj v Mickey Gall MONEYLINE WON
“first stay away the Mickey Gall Ramiz Brahimaj fight two cans man two bottom of the barrel Fighters I don't want to lay any money on it to be honest with you um if if you want to go ahead but brahimaj was my pick I don't I'm just not laying any money on this one to be honest with you”
Line since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$2.25 close$2.25
entry: TAB · best in any region at publish
BN Bo Nickal v Paul Craig MONEYLINE WON
“the Bo Nickal vers Paul Craig fight look b nickel has been not fraud checked but has been caught in some suspect positions in his last few fights against some subpar competition like the Cody brunch fight come on now so I don't really trust him and I think when he actually goes up against a tough true opponent I'm looking to fade him but I think he gets it done in this fight”
Line since pick CLV +2%
◆ entry$1.10 close$1.08
entry: ESPN BET · best in any region at publish