MMA Prophecy
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UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
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JJ SM Jones vs MiocicMain Card · Heavyweight CO MC Oliveira vs ChandlerMain Card · Lightweight BN PC Nickal vs CraigMain Card · Middleweight VA KS Araújo vs SilvaMain Card · Women'S Flyweight MR JL Ruffy vs LlontopMain Card · Catchweight MM JM McGhee vs MartinezPreliminary Card · Bantamweight JM DJ Miller vs JacksonPreliminary Card · Lightweight DO RR Onama vs RomeroPreliminary Card · Lightweight MT JD Tybura vs DinizPreliminary Card · Heavyweight RB MG Brahimaj vs GallEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight OE BH Elliott vs HafezEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight EM VH Moura vs HardyEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
BEST PRICE Prophecy read Ruffy v Llontop Catchweight Our fair value $1.14 best price $1.11 PASS · MARKET AGREES
Where to back Ruffy best price · region · EV vs fair $1.14
US BetRivers $1.11 -3%
UK LiveScore Bet $1.11 -3%
EU LiveScore Bet (EU) $1.11 -3%
AU Unibet $1.11 -3%
Consensus58 picks · conf 72/99
Ruffy 51
7 Llontop
TFKHCU pick Ruffy
How it endsmethod calls · Ruffy · crowd line
KO/TKO 51 $1.30
Submission 2 $33.07
Decision 3 $22.05
None 2 $33.07
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Ruffy 13-2 VS 14-5 Llontop
5'11" height 6'0"
155 lb weight 166 lb
75" reach 73"
30 age 26
Orthodox stance Orthodox
2.5 strikes landed / min 5.6
49% striking accuracy 41%
2.4 strikes absorbed / min 4.1
49% striking defence 57%
0.5 takedowns / 15 min 0.0
30% takedown accuracy 0%
69% takedown defence 54%
0.7 submissions / 15 min 0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market88% vs 90%
Consensus51 of 58 analysts
Sharpest angleRuffy by KO/TKO — 51 of 58 method calls
Recommendation Pass — no edge model agrees with the market PASS
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
GP Greedo Plays picks James Llontop VALUE “give me the Lakers to dominate the Pelicans here”
BS B ALL N Sports picks Maurício Ruffy “I am gonna side with the heavy favorite in rufy”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Maurício Ruffy “I'm picking Maurício Ruffy... easy pick Maurício Ruffy”
DR DRYWALL picks Maurício Ruffy VALUE “I'm taking Maurício Ruffy ruy by KO or not TKO whatever it may be round agnostic”
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Maurício Ruffy “my subscribers and I went with maricio rufi” $1.13
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Maurício Ruffy “I hope Maurício Ruffy absolutely wrecks his [__] shot”
CO CombatOddsHQ picks Maurício Ruffy VALUE “I'm on a small shot on Maurício Ruffy at plus 215” $3.15
KI Kevin Iole picks Maurício Ruffy “we think very highly of him and we were talking to him this week”
SB SouthernTea Boxing-MMA & Sports Betting picks Maurício Ruffy “Maurício Ruffy for the win probably first round knockout or something like that”
JC Jack Cassell picks Maurício Ruffy “I'm going to go with this guy for three reasons one Conor MC two 900 favorite three fighting nerds he's going to knock him out”
AD All-Star DFS picks James Llontop VALUE “if I am to take a shot in any of these uh 6K Fighters it would probably be on top”
AD All-Star DFS picks Maurício Ruffy “I think this line is nonsense I don't get how how you you bet Maurício Maurício Ruffy at minus 900” $1.11
Recent form last five, most recent first
Ruffy13-2
W Chandler KO/TKO · R1 Jun '26
W Fiziev KO/TKO · R2 Feb '26
L Denis Submission · R2 Sep '25
W Green KO/TKO · R1 Mar '25
W Llontop Decision · R3 Nov '24
Llontop14-5
L Ruffy Decision · R3 Nov '24
L Borshchev Decision · R3 Aug '24
L Padilla Submission · R1 Apr '24