MMA Prophecy
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UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
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JJ SM Jones vs MiocicMain Card · Heavyweight CO MC Oliveira vs ChandlerMain Card · Lightweight BN PC Nickal vs CraigMain Card · Middleweight VA KS Araújo vs SilvaMain Card · Women'S Flyweight MR JL Ruffy vs LlontopMain Card · Catchweight MM JM McGhee vs MartinezPreliminary Card · Bantamweight JM DJ Miller vs JacksonPreliminary Card · Lightweight DO RR Onama vs RomeroPreliminary Card · Lightweight MT JD Tybura vs DinizPreliminary Card · Heavyweight RB MG Brahimaj vs GallEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight OE BH Elliott vs HafezEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight EM VH Moura vs HardyEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
BEST PRICE We back Elliott over Hafez · Welterweight Our fair value$1.38 ESPN BET pays above fair $1.43
Where to back Elliott best price · region · EV vs fair $1.38
US ESPN BET $1.43 +4%
UK Unibet (UK) $1.33 -4%
EU Coolbet $1.38 +0%
AU Unibet $1.33 -4%
Consensus59 picks · conf 72/99
Elliott 45
14 Hafez
UJNCMT pick Elliott
How it endsmethod calls · Elliott · crowd line
KO/TKO 2 $13.78
Submission 2 $13.78
Decision 15 $1.84
None 1 $27.55
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Elliott 12-4 VS 9-4-1 Hafez
6'0" height 5'11"
169 lb weight 171 lb
72" reach 72"
28 age 34
Orthodox stance Orthodox
2.4 strikes landed / min 3.7
51% striking accuracy 38%
2.2 strikes absorbed / min 5.7
72% striking defence 41%
1.5 takedowns / 15 min 2.2
64% takedown accuracy 24%
58% takedown defence 50%
0.7 submissions / 15 min 0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market73% vs 70%
Consensus45 of 59 analysts
Sharpest angleElliott by Decision — 15 of 20 method calls
Recommendation Back Elliott @ $1.43 · fair $1.38 +4% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
BS B ALL N Sports picks Oban Elliott “I'm going with Elliott in this one”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Bassil Hafez “I got Bassil Hafez ... Bassil Hafez all day long”
DR DRYWALL picks Oban Elliott VALUE “Oban Elliott by money line it's that simple”
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Oban Elliott “My subscribers and I went with Oban Elliott” $1.65
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Oban Elliott “I'm picking Oban Elliott I'm doing the full card breakdown after this”
DA Dawg picks Oban Elliott “prediction Oban Oban Elliottt potential takedowns for either fighter”
CC Cody's Calls picks Bassil Hafez VALUE “give me Bassil Hafez”
CM Coty MMA picks Oban Elliott “the pick is Oban Elliott”
AD All-Star DFS picks Bassil Hafez VALUE “Bassil Hafez halfz negative line value isn't great but for mme we don't care all that much about that he's still plus 230 it's not bad and I think he has a big ceiling here” $3.30
AD All-Star DFS picks Oban Elliott “Oban Elliott Oban Elliott Elliottt I think there's a key distinction here for small field single entry stuff I think Oban Elliott ellot it's a great play” $1.37
CT Combat Sports Today picks Oban Elliott VALUE $1.95
GB Gilbert Burns picks Bassil Hafez “we got Bazil HZ against Oban Elliott I like Bassil Hafez a little bit better on this fight”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Elliott12-4
L Micallef Submission · R2 Feb '26
L Seok-hyun Decision · R3 Jun '25
W Hafez KO/TKO · R3 Nov '24
W Parsons Decision · R3 Jul '24
W Woodburn Decision · R3 Feb '24
Hafez9-4-1
L Elliott KO/TKO · R3 Nov '24
W Gall Decision · R3 Jun '24
L Maddalena Decision · R3 Jul '23