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UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
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JJ SM Jones vs MiocicMain Card · Heavyweight CO MC Oliveira vs ChandlerMain Card · Lightweight BN PC Nickal vs CraigMain Card · Middleweight VA KS Araújo vs SilvaMain Card · Women'S Flyweight MR JL Ruffy vs LlontopMain Card · Catchweight MM JM McGhee vs MartinezPreliminary Card · Bantamweight JM DJ Miller vs JacksonPreliminary Card · Lightweight DO RR Onama vs RomeroPreliminary Card · Lightweight MT JD Tybura vs DinizPreliminary Card · Heavyweight RB MG Brahimaj vs GallEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight OE BH Elliott vs HafezEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight EM VH Moura vs HardyEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
BEST PRICE We back McGhee over Martinez · Bantamweight Our fair value$1.73 Pinnacle pays above fair $1.80
Where to back McGhee best price · region · EV vs fair $1.73
US Bovada $1.78 +3%
UK LiveScore Bet $1.73 -0%
EU Pinnacle $1.80 +4%
AU PlayUp $1.77 +2%
Consensus64 picks · conf 74/99
McGhee 41
23 Martinez
UOEJNC pick McGhee
How it endsmethod calls · McGhee · crowd line
KO/TKO 14 $3.34
Submission 2 $23.38
Decision 11 $4.25
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
McGhee 10-2 VS 19-6 Martinez
5'8" height 5'8"
136 lb weight 136 lb
69" reach 70"
36 age 32
Orthodox stance Southpaw
6.1 strikes landed / min 4.4
48% striking accuracy 49%
2.8 strikes absorbed / min 4.1
64% striking defence 56%
0.5 takedowns / 15 min 0.4
33% takedown accuracy 35%
100% takedown defence 68%
0.5 submissions / 15 min 0.1
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market58% vs 56%
Consensus41 of 64 analysts
Sharpest angleMcGhee by KO/TKO — 14 of 27 method calls
Recommendation Back McGhee @ $1.80 · fair $1.73 +4% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
PP Pick Pocket Podcast picks Jonathan Martinez VALUE “I like plus three and a half Jonathan Martinez”
PP Pick Pocket Podcast picks Marcus McGhee VALUE “I'm going with Marcus McGhee because I think he'll be able to check the low kicks”
BS B ALL N Sports picks Marcus McGhee “I'm gonna take the underdog Jonathan Martinez to get this done by decision”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Marcus McGhee “I really like Marcus McGhee I picked him tell you that Marcus McGhee gonna win a decision”
DR DRYWALL picks Marcus McGhee VALUE “My Boy my favorite gargoyle this guy just posts up right outside of the H he's just outside the HQ hunched over with NOT_IN_ROSTER_34 sure we feed him”
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Marcus McGhee “I went with Marcus McGhee” $1.83
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Marcus McGhee “especially Marcus McGhee I think he's gonna handle Jonathan Jonathan Martinez”
DS dskisdead picks Jonathan Martinez “I'm gonna go Jonathan because he has more experience in the UFC he's younger”
DS dskisdead picks Marcus McGhee “hell McGee knocks him out McGee finishes him or I think this is gonna be a banger”
EB ESPN BET picks Marcus McGhee VALUE “Marcus McGhee McGhee over Jon Jonesathan Jon Jonesathan Martinez”
KU Kunath picks Jonathan Martinez VALUE “I picked Jonathan Martinez to win this fight and I think it will go the distance”
SB SouthernTea Boxing-MMA & Sports Betting picks Marcus McGhee “want to go with Marcus McGhee in this I think Marcus McGee is the more dangerous fighter”
Recent form last five, most recent first
McGhee10-2
W Yannis Decision · R3 Jun '26
L Yan Decision · R3 Jul '25
W Martinez Decision · R3 Nov '24
W Bolaños KO/TKO · R2 Jan '24
W Buys KO/TKO · R1 Aug '23
Martinez19-6
L McGhee Decision · R3 Nov '24
L Aldo Decision · R3 May '24
W Yañez KO/TKO · R2 Oct '23
W Nurmagomedov Decision · R3 Mar '23
W Swanson KO/TKO · R2 Oct '22