UFC 312 DraftKings Picks

“the co-main five round fight Tatiana Suarez versus Zhang Weili perfect pricing 88.2k 8K whey with one of the highest ceilings on the Slate arguably the same thing for Tatiana Suarez all the wrestling upside you can ask for so I do believe that the winning lineup will leave salary on the table”

“I think this Zhang Weili fight Zhang Weili Tatiana Suarez I don't see how it's not getting there if the field is going to play 80% I'll play 100 if the fields going to play 90% I'll play 100 that's one of the first things I'm doing is I'm I'm locking this fight in and I I rarely ever do that but I I honestly don't see how this fight uh fails so that's one of the things I'm going to be doing”

“I think it's a very fringey play on on a card like this”

“Wang Cong pure Striker 9400 and lacking what I think will be any meaningful itd line”

“Bruna Brasil uh plus 300 to win the fight 6.8k if she does win I got to imagine it will come with with takedowns”

“I have interest in and Kody Kody Steelee he has wrestling upside and I think have an okay itd line as well uh matter of fact let's just check maybe FanDuel has it up FanDuel UFC let's go ahead and check uh if the itd lines are up here double chance so Rong Zhu plus 290”

“Kody Kody Steelee he has wrestling upside and I think have an okay itd line as well uh matter of fact let's just check maybe FanDuel has it up FanDuel UFC let's go ahead and check uh if the itd lines are up here double chance so Rong Zhu plus 290 yeah I think that's he's an underdog that you're going to want to get to and Kody Kody Steelee is even money itd I think this fight looks good on both sides”

“Kevin Jousset uh Jonathan Micallef jet I don't imagine having a good itd line he's a point fighter he's a kickboxer with a bit of Judo minus 240 money line uh plus 145 itd I mean again I he looks like a similar play to to Wayne KH and you're saving 400 but he's still not a great play”

“Jonathan Micallef 7.2k uh plus 550 itd he has a bit of takedown upside potentially but another play that I another fight that I don't have a lot of interest in”

“Gabriel Santos versus Jack Jenkins Jack Jen Jack J uh Point fighting Kickboxer for the most part he'll mix in takedowns but I don't think he'll be doing that in this fight really a a fringy mme play”

“Santos although he has a poor itd line I do like like the side of of this fight a bit better um just because he does have really good grappling and if he does find a finish at 8,900 that's certainly in play so he's my preferred side”

“Main Event Dricus du Plessis versus Sean Strickland it's going to look good right we we know that Sean Strickland the thing I'll say about him he has five rounds to work with we've seen in the past he scores anywhere from you know 92 is to like 105 in his five round wins he does have that upside Tock get to the 110 since stuff of course but he's a pure Striker like as as pure of a striker as you can get so you really need him to to pump out this volume and he does do that over the five rounds so you can get 95 to 1005 out of him in his wins 7600 the price makes sense but I will say if there's a side of the main event that's less likely to get there it's probably Shan it could be DDP honestly I mean h yeah he he has a lot of upside take down upside finishing upside I take that back I I I I think both sides look good”

“Viacheslav Borshchev versus Justin Tafa should be a great fight to Target two light heavyweights with a ton of finishing upside um Creo has the takedown upside um but both guys are going to have good itd lines Bato to minus 105 at 8.5k I think this is another Elite fight to Target”

“Dricus du Plessis versus Sean Strickland I will not be locking in I do see pass to where that fight doesn't get there um but without further Ado let's go ahead and talk matchup by matchup uh Quillan Salkilld versus Anshul Jubli 9600 uh for Quillan Salkilld and that's a big price for a card that I think has a ton of upside and you're going to need him to probably finish in round one you're going to need him to Grapple which he does have he does have grappling upside the itd line's okay round one Line's is not amazing plus 250 I think it's a very fringey play on on a card like this um now you can get to it I don't think the salary will be a problem if Sal sill is the highest scoring fighter on the Slate you will be able to get to it but I just don't think that's very likely you have I mean there's so many Elite fights here I don't think Quillan Salkilld's a priority and maybe for cash because of the line value that he does have but it's definitely not one of my uh favorite gpp plays by any means and then as far as juble I don't think you'll get leverage I don't think you'll get um a big ceiling out of him but then again he's only I mean he's minimum price 6.6k so it's an mme play only and I don't have a lot of interest in him either Wang Cong versus Bruna Brasil Wayne Wang Cong pure Striker 9400 and lacking what I think will be any meaningful itd line plus 145 plus 400 round one it's a really weak play Bruna Brasil uh plus 300 to win the fight 6.8k if she does win I got to imagine it will come with with takedowns but is an 80o decision enough on a card like this I don't know so another sketchy play I I'll put Brazil in as a a fringy mme play but not a lot of interest in this fight either uh next up Aleksandre Topuria or Alexandre toor I'm not sure which one it is the brother of the featherweight Champion Ilia Toria and there is an interesting storyline for this fight uh kobby thickness is Aleksandre Topuria volkanovski's uh teammate so you have ilot Toria in the corner of his brother and then Aleksandre Topuria volkanovski in the corner of thickness and I believe that is the fight that they'll make next for the featherweight belt so a little bit of an interesting storyline there but 99.3k for Toria mine is 360 favorite uh one and a half round line out of this 9k range I do think Toria looks the strongest at least so far he looks way better than than KH and C kill and you Sav the 300 from from going to cell killed uh he has wrestling upside he has that round one upside I I think think he's a fine play actually we'll put him in as a yeah we'll leave him as a fine play toore is definitely one of the better spend UPS in this 9k range um and then thickness it's just a mme only I don't see him really having any finishing upside he's already a pretty big Underdog as is and I I don't love it so maybe leave him in for mme but not a ton of interest in him moving on to uh Kody Steele versus Rong Zhu uh Cody steel minus 230 9.1k no i2d line yet onb online but I imagine Rong Zhu will be around plus 300 or so and I think that's fine at at 7100 he's definitely an underdog I have interest in and Kody Kody Steelee he has wrestling upside and I think have an okay itd line as well uh matter of fact let's just check maybe FanDuel has it up FanDuel UFC let's go ahead and check uh if the itd lines are up here double chance so Rong Zhu plus 290 yeah I think that's he's an underdog that you're going to want to get to and Kody Kody Steelee is even money itd I think this fight looks good on both sides you combine the The Knockout upside of Rong Zhu with the wrestling and finishing upside of Kody Steele and I think you have a fight that's worth getting to um let me actually check the Toria fight now that I have oops Toria let's see if the iotd lines are up for this one double chance uh minus 200 itd so yeah Toria is by far one of the best spend UPS so far and then thickness plus 700 yeah yeah thickness just not any interest in him really um we'll move on to the next fight Kevin Jousset uh Jonathan Micallef jet I don't imagine having a good itd line he's a point fighter he's a kickboxer with a bit of Judo minus 240 money line uh plus 145 itd I mean again I he looks like a similar play to to Wayne KH and you're saving 400 but he's still not a great play you know so I I don't have a lot of interest in him and then Jonathan Micallef 7.2k uh plus 550 itd he has a bit of takedown upside potentially but another play that I another fight that I don't have a lot of interest in moving on to Gabriel Santos versus Jack Jenkins Jack Jen Jack J uh Point fighting Kickboxer for the most part he'll mix in takedowns but I don't think he'll be doing that in this fight really a a fringy mme play on the Jenkins side Santos although he has a poor itd line I do like like the side of of this fight a bit better um just because he does have really good grappling and if he does find a finish at 8,900 that's certainly in play so he's my preferred side moving on to Jake Matthews versus uh Francisco pra Jake Matthews has some takedown upside in this matchup let's see minus 250 certainly a healthy money line for his price Jake Jake Matthews plus 260 itd really poor actually pra plus 320 that's in play um I think that part's the preferred side of this one and Matthew I mean Jake Matthews looks he looks okay we'll leave we'll leave him in just because of his grappling upside but pra is the preferred side park versus Tumi Park very very strong play grappling upside finishing upside um minus 220 favorite plus 110 itd he's he's one of the best plays on the Slate as far as the metrics go and Tumi 7.5k plus 30 itd sign me up for that as well I I think that both sides of this fight look very strong next up Main Event Dricus du Plessis versus Sean Strickland it's going to look good right we we know that Sean Strickland the thing I'll say about him he has five rounds to work with we've seen in the past he scores anywhere from you know 92 is to like 105 in his five round wins he does have that upside Tock get to the 110 since stuff of course but he's a pure Striker like as as pure of a striker as you can get so you really need him to to pump out this volume and he does do that over the five rounds so you can get 95 to 1005 out of him in his wins 7600 the price makes sense but I will say if there's a side of the main event that's less likely to get there it's probably Shan it could be DDP honestly I mean h yeah he he has a lot of upside take down upside finishing upside I take that back I I I I think both sides look good if you do get to lineups naturally without this fight I think it's okay but I I wouldn't go out of my way to do that um moving on to Viacheslav Borshchev versus Justin Tafa should be a great fight to Target two light heavyweights with a ton of finishing upside um Creo has the takedown upside um but both guys are going to have good itd lines Bato to minus 105 at 8.5k I think this is another Elite fight to Target okay next we have Justin Tafa another Elite fight to Target you got uh two guys who are going to go in there Swing Swing heavy one guy's probably going to go down in round one let's check the metrics for tafa uh pretty much a pick them fight as far as the money line goes and uh the fight is minus 600 to not go the distance favored to end in round one I think someone's someone's making the optimal from this fight again we'll we'll mention it we always do if this fight goes the distance it's probably going to flop we saw it last week I mean I feel like we're we're speaking it into into existence with with pavlovich the guy's never got I don't think he's ever worn a decision in his life and last week he all of a sudden decides to wrestle and win a decision and only scored 85 and I think he was 45% owned and the pavich took a z swap ended up winning uh the tournament last week so it's always something to keep in mind the downside for this fight is massive but you you still got to play it if it finishes in round one that's a one time for either side and that will certainly provide value at 8,400 or 7800 moving on to Viacheslav Borshchev another Striker versus Striker matchup if there is a guy who has Tak down upside it's Tom Tom Nolan just because we've seen Viacheslav Borshchev has literally zero takedown defense so if Tom Nolan decides to shoot I don't think he will but if he does he can probably get as many takedowns as he wants so that is something to keep in mind but this fight one and a half round line Striker versus Striker if it finishes it's probably going to do extremely well um so I think it's another fight to include as a pretty high priority Target and then last but not least the main event or co-main event excuse me I already touched on this I think it's one of the best plays uh on the Slate perfect pricing to to uh you get five rounds of high-paced women's MMA both girls have grappling upside Pace upside you know everything you can really ask for out of this price and it's hard to imagine myself having any lineups without this fight so that's going to do it um if you have any questions please leave a comment um and as always thank you guys for watching and I will see you in the next one”

“Tom Nolan versus Viacheslav Borshchev: if Tom Nolan decides to shoot I don't think he will but if he does he can probably get as many takedowns as he wants so that is something to keep in mind but this fight one and a half round line Striker versus Striker if it finishes it's probably going to do extremely well um so I think it's another fight to include as a pretty high priority Target”