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UFC 312: du Plessis vs. Strickland 2
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BEST PRICE We back Nolan over Borshchev · Lightweight Our fair value$1.95 Pinnacle pays above fair $2.05
Where to back Nolan best price · region · EV vs fair $1.95
US DraftKings $2.00 +3%
UK Virgin Bet $1.95 +0%
EU Pinnacle $2.05 +5%
AU SportsBet $1.98 +2%
Consensus66 picks · conf 74/99
Nolan 39
27 Borshchev
bSLCMA pick Nolan
How it endsmethod calls · Nolan · crowd line
KO/TKO 12 $3.41
Submission 1 $40.92
Decision 7 $5.85
None 1 $40.92
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Nolan 10-1 VS 8-4-1 Borshchev
6'3" height 5'11"
155 lb weight 155 lb
73" reach 69"
26 age 34
Southpaw stance Orthodox
2.5 strikes landed / min 5.4
52% striking accuracy 53%
2.4 strikes absorbed / min 4.8
59% striking defence 56%
1.2 takedowns / 15 min 0.0
42% takedown accuracy 0%
62% takedown defence 35%
1.4 submissions / 15 min 0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market51% vs 49%
Consensus39 of 66 analysts
Sharpest angleNolan by KO/TKO — 12 of 21 method calls
Recommendation Back Nolan @ $2.05 · fair $1.95 +5% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Viacheslav Borshchev “my subscribers and I went with VH love bosev” $1.74
ML MMA Lewis picks Tom Nolan “I'll go with Tom Nolan”
PP Pick Pocket Podcast picks Tom Nolan VALUE $2.00
FM FATALITY MMA picks Tom Nolan “I'm GNA take Tom Nolan even though borchev is I think he's actually really good but I'm going to take Tom Nolan and I'm not crazy confident because I think that the only way that he does get it done is by early finish borchev leaves openings and when like when he fought Hooper Hooper knocked him down like with an overhand like it was kind of it looked kind of like a fluky overhand but he leaves openings and Tom Nolan's kind of a sniper he's bigger he's very aggressive early”
CM Coty MMA picks Tom Nolan VALUE “I took Tom Tom Nolan at plus 118” $2.18
WS We'll Do It Live! MMA Betting & Scoring picks Tom Nolan VALUE “third play of the night I got this one early um Tom Nolan at plus3” $4.00
TT The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Tom Nolan VALUE “I like Tom Nolan” $2.25
TT The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Viacheslav Borshchev “at worst this is just a brawl between two guys”
PP Parlay Princes picks Viacheslav Borshchev “I got Viacheslav Borshchev in this guys” $1.83
MM Menace and The Man picks Viacheslav Borshchev “I'm going to go Viacheslav Borshchev in that one”
TS The MMA Show picks Viacheslav Borshchev “I think Viacheslav Borshchev gets that done”
LM Leftlane MMA picks Viacheslav Borshchev “I'm going to be picking Viacheslav Viacheslav Borshchevshchev this is a fun fight it should end up in the Finish now let me just say this the card is straight ass like terrible and not good not the good kind of as the card is actual [ __ ] but it will be fun like the matchups are not boring but no one actually cares if the matchups are not going to be boring because in hindsight we all probably are going to go oh this card was cool everyone hating on it was dumb but still it's a [ __ ] pay-per-view card with Justin Justin Tafa t for as the feature fight um but anyway fights like this should make it fun Tom Nolan Nolan vicious love Viacheslav Borshchev that being said though Tom Nolan Nolan did go to a [ __ ] decision with Alex Reyes in his last fight and looked mid before that so I'm not picking him to win”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Nolan10-1
W Ziam Decision · R3 Jun '26
W Campbell Submission · R1 Sep '25
W Borshchev Decision · R3 Feb '25
W Reyes Decision · R3 Aug '24
W Martinez KO/TKO · R1 May '24
Borshchev8-4-1
L Camilo Decision · R3 Nov '25
L McKinney Submission · R1 Jun '25
L Nolan Decision · R3 Feb '25
W Llontop Decision · R3 Aug '24
L Hooper Submission · R2 May '24