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UFC 312: du Plessis vs. Strickland 2
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DP SS Plessis vs StricklandMain Card · Middleweight ZW TS Weili vs SuarezMain Card · Women'S Strawweight TT JT Teixeira vs TafaMain Card · Heavyweight JC RB Crute vs BellatoMain Card · Light Heavyweight JM FP Matthews vs PradoMain Card · Welterweight GS JJ Santos vs JenkinsPreliminary Card · Featherweight TN VB Nolan vs BorshchevPreliminary Card · Lightweight WC BB Cong vs BrasilPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight AT CT Topuria vs ThicknessePreliminary Card · Bantamweight RZ KS Zhu vs SteeleEarly Preliminary Card · Lightweight JM KJ Micallef vs JoussetEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight QS AJ Salkilld vs JubliEarly Preliminary Card · Lightweight
BEST PRICE We back Prado over Matthews · Welterweight Our fair value$3.17 BetAnything pays above fair $3.30
Where to back Prado best price · region · EV vs fair $3.17
US BetAnything $3.30 +4%
UK Grosvenor $2.95 -7%
EU Coolbet $3.02 -5%
AU Ladbrokes AU $3.10 -2%
Consensus94 picks · conf 83/99
Matthews 62
32 Prado
TACJMH pick Matthews
How it endsmethod calls · Prado · crowd line
KO/TKO 8 $5.55
Decision 4 $11.11
None 2 $22.22
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Matthews 22-8 VS 12-4 Prado
5'11" height 5'10"
170 lb weight 170 lb
73" reach 69"
31 age 24
Orthodox stance Orthodox
5.9 strikes landed / min 4.6
41% striking accuracy 41%
2.6 strikes absorbed / min 5.7
47% striking defence 52%
2.2 takedowns / 15 min 0.0
40% takedown accuracy 0%
50% takedown defence 25%
1.8 submissions / 15 min 0.4
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market32% vs 30%
Consensus32 of 94 analysts
Sharpest anglePrado by KO/TKO — 8 of 14 method calls
Recommendation Back Prado @ $3.30 · fair $3.17 +4% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Jake Matthews “my subscribers and I went with um Jake Matthews” $1.45
ML MMA Lewis picks Jake Matthews “so I'm going have to go with Jake Matthewss”
PP Pick Pocket Podcast picks Francisco Prado VALUE $3.00
PP Pick Pocket Podcast picks Jake Matthews
KM Knuckles MMA picks Jake Matthews “I have Jake Matthews winning this fight by either um a late round TKO a late third round TKO to be specific or um maybe a split decision”
ES etoft21 sports picks Jake Matthews VALUE “I'm going with Jake Matthews, probably by TKO”
ES etoft21 sports picks Francisco Prado VALUE “I'm taking Francisco Prado”
FM FATALITY MMA picks Jake Matthews “I'll take Jake Matthews he's more technical Francisco pra doesn't have finishing ability should stay standing Jake Matthews in his home spot”
DM DR. MMA picks Jake Matthews “I'm going have to go with Jake Matthews once again”
MW Muay Thai Wolverine picks Jake Matthews “I'm going with with you uh Jake Matthews for this”
TL The Millennial Londoner picks Francisco Prado “I'm going to go Francisco Prado”
CM Coty MMA picks Jake Matthews “I do think Jake Matthews gets it done”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Matthews22-8
W Harris Decision · R3 May '26
L Magny Submission · R3 Sep '25
W Njokuani Submission · R1 Jul '25
W Prado Decision · R3 Feb '25
W Rowe Decision · R3 Jun '24
Prado12-4
L Radtke Decision · R3 Apr '26
L Veretennikov Decision · R3 Jul '25
L Matthews Decision · R3 Feb '25
L Zellhuber Decision · R3 Feb '24
W Azaitar KO/TKO · R1 Jul '23