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Matthews vs PradoMain Card · Welterweight
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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Teixeira v Tafa
Heavyweight
Our fair value
$1.69
best price $1.66
PASS · MARKET AGREES
Where to back Teixeira
best price · region · EV vs fair $1.69
US
BetOnline.ag
$1.65
-2%
BetOnline.ag
$1.65
-2%
UK
LiveScore Bet
$1.63
-4%
LiveScore Bet
$1.63
-4%
EU
Pinnacle
$1.66
-2%
Pinnacle
$1.66
-2%
AU
Neds
$1.64
-3%
Neds
$1.64
-3%
How it endsmethod calls · Teixeira · crowd line
KO/TKO
25
$2.03
Submission
4
$12.69
Decision
1
$50.78
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Teixeira 9-1
VS
7-5 Tafa
6'7"
height
6'0"
259 lb
weight
266 lb
83"
reach
74"
26
age
32
Orthodox
stance
Southpaw
14.9
strikes landed / min
5.4
54%
striking accuracy
59%
9.7
strikes absorbed / min
2.3
58%
striking defence
55%
0.0
takedowns / 15 min
1.9
0%
takedown accuracy
43%
0%
takedown defence
52%
0.0
submissions / 15 min
1.9
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
Hit “Run deep research” to pull the latest from X and the news.
What the numbers say
Model vs market59% vs 60%
Consensus37 of 62 analysts
Sharpest angleTeixeira by KO/TKO — 25 of 30 method calls
Recommendation
Pass — no edge model agrees with the market
PASS
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
OS
Once Upon A Slugfest picks Tallison Teixeira VALUE
“my subscribers and I went with the list in taxier”
$2.30
Once Upon A Slugfest picks Tallison Teixeira VALUE
“my subscribers and I went with the list in taxier”
$2.30
PP
Pick Pocket Podcast picks Justin Tafa
Pick Pocket Podcast picks Justin Tafa
FM
FATALITY MMA picks Tallison Teixeira
“I'll take Tallison Teixeira um I think the tofa brothers are [ __ ] terrible I think they're really bad tierah had I've watched a couple fights I watched his Contender series fight I wasn't impressed he's just tall he's like a heavyweight sniper but like not a good one awful tattoos I don't know why I'm so like hung up on the tattoos right now but Jesus Christ like what what the hell is going on I'll take Tallison Teixeira uh Justin Tafa's been ko'ed before and he's pretty short in this matchup”
FATALITY MMA picks Tallison Teixeira
“I'll take Tallison Teixeira um I think the tofa brothers are [ __ ] terrible I think they're really bad tierah had I've watched a couple fights I watched his Contender series fight I wasn't impressed he's just tall he's like a heavyweight sniper but like not a good one awful tattoos I don't know why I'm so like hung up on the tattoos right now but Jesus Christ like what what the hell is going on I'll take Tallison Teixeira uh Justin Tafa's been ko'ed before and he's pretty short in this matchup”
EB
ESPN BET picks Tallison Teixeira VALUE
“we're going to go with the Young Gun over the old vet here”
ESPN BET picks Tallison Teixeira VALUE
“we're going to go with the Young Gun over the old vet here”
MW
Muay Thai Wolverine picks Justin Tafa
“I'm gonna go with Justin Tafa for this one”
Muay Thai Wolverine picks Justin Tafa
“I'm gonna go with Justin Tafa for this one”
TL
The Millennial Londoner picks Tallison Teixeira
“I'm going to go with Tallison Teixeira on that one”
The Millennial Londoner picks Tallison Teixeira
“I'm going to go with Tallison Teixeira on that one”
CM
Coty MMA picks Tallison Teixeira
“I'll pick Tallison Teixeira”
Coty MMA picks Tallison Teixeira
“I'll pick Tallison Teixeira”
WS
We'll Do It Live! MMA Betting & Scoring picks Tallison Teixeira VALUE
“I visualized that right hand connecting with that chin and Tallison Teixeira taking him out so I got Tallison Teixeira two units at plus 132”
$2.32
We'll Do It Live! MMA Betting & Scoring picks Tallison Teixeira VALUE
“I visualized that right hand connecting with that chin and Tallison Teixeira taking him out so I got Tallison Teixeira two units at plus 132”
$2.32
TT
The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Tallison Teixeira
“he can win via grappling he can win via submission”
The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Tallison Teixeira
“he can win via grappling he can win via submission”
MM
Menace and The Man picks Tallison Teixeira
“I'm going to root for talison texara Tallison Teixeira”
Menace and The Man picks Tallison Teixeira
“I'm going to root for talison texara Tallison Teixeira”
TS
The MMA Show picks Tallison Teixeira
“I'm going to root for talison texara Tallison Teixeira”
The MMA Show picks Tallison Teixeira
“I'm going to root for talison texara Tallison Teixeira”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Teixeira9-1
L
Pavlovich
May '26
W
Tuivasa
Feb '26
L
Lewis
Jul '25
W
Tafa
Feb '25
Tafa7-5
L
Teixeira
Feb '25
L
Williams
Mar '24
W
Lane
Sep '23
W
Porter
Feb '23
W
Hunsucker
Dec '21