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UFC 312: du Plessis vs. Strickland 2
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DP SS Plessis vs StricklandMain Card · Middleweight ZW TS Weili vs SuarezMain Card · Women'S Strawweight TT JT Teixeira vs TafaMain Card · Heavyweight JC RB Crute vs BellatoMain Card · Light Heavyweight JM FP Matthews vs PradoMain Card · Welterweight GS JJ Santos vs JenkinsPreliminary Card · Featherweight TN VB Nolan vs BorshchevPreliminary Card · Lightweight WC BB Cong vs BrasilPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight AT CT Topuria vs ThicknessePreliminary Card · Bantamweight RZ KS Zhu vs SteeleEarly Preliminary Card · Lightweight JM KJ Micallef vs JoussetEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight QS AJ Salkilld vs JubliEarly Preliminary Card · Lightweight
BEST PRICE We back Bellato over Crute · Light Heavyweight Our fair value$1.71 Pinnacle pays above fair $1.75
Where to back Bellato best price · region · EV vs fair $1.71
US DraftKings $1.74 +2%
UK Paddy Power $1.67 -2%
EU Pinnacle $1.75 +2%
AU SportsBet $1.67 -2%
Consensus72 picks · conf 76/99
Crute 29
43 Bellato
SOT1UK pick Crute
How it endsmethod calls · Bellato · crowd line
KO/TKO 27 $2.09
Submission 1 $56.43
Decision 5 $11.29
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Crute 14-4-2 VS 13-3-1 Bellato
6'2" height 6'3"
205 lb weight 204 lb
74" reach 75"
30 age 30
Orthodox stance Orthodox
3.9 strikes landed / min 4.4
53% striking accuracy 36%
3.3 strikes absorbed / min 2.4
70% striking defence 50%
1.7 takedowns / 15 min 1.4
73% takedown accuracy 30%
76% takedown defence 80%
0.2 submissions / 15 min 1.4
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market58% vs 57%
Consensus43 of 72 analysts
Sharpest angleBellato by KO/TKO — 27 of 33 method calls
Recommendation Back Bellato @ $1.75 · fair $1.71 +2% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
GP Greedo Plays picks Jimmy Crute VALUE “give me the Milwaukee Bucks at home even without janison to theuma we need another big night like we've gotten recently out of Dame and out of Bobby poris in order for the bucks to take this one and I'm more than willing to play that give me Milwaukee on the money line plus 195”
TS Take A Seat picks Rodolfo Bellato VALUE “I think he just lost his second one uh but it was like decision so like but he's good um so it's good to see how do you switch that emotion on and off because I know you're a very kind person you know and you're very humble person but obviously in that ring you've got to be it's you or me yeah and it's not going to be me”
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Rodolfo Bellato “my subscribers went with Jimmy crude and I went with Roda bellato” $1.71
ML MMA Lewis picks Rodolfo Bellato “overall I'm going have the lean towards belato”
PP Pick Pocket Podcast picks Jimmy Crute
12 12Coffees picks Jimmy Crute “Obviously I'm going to Jimmy Crute”
KM Knuckles MMA picks Jimmy Crute “I think Jimmy Crute NOT_IN_ROSTER_8 could just take this Dude down lay on him for a little bit probably throw up sub submissions and I don't know I I'll give it to Jimmy Crute cre by submission”
ES etoft21 sports picks Rodolfo Bellato VALUE “I'm taking Rodolfo Bellato”
ES etoft21 sports picks Jimmy Crute VALUE “I'm taking Jimmy Crute”
EB ESPN BET picks Rodolfo Bellato VALUE “I'm gonna take Rodolfo Bellato here younger”
MW Muay Thai Wolverine picks Rodolfo Bellato “I'm going to go with Rodolfo Bellato”
TL The Millennial Londoner picks Jimmy Crute “I think Jimmy Crute is going to get this win”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Crute14-4-2
W Erslan Submission · R1 Sep '25
W Prachnio Submission · R1 Jul '25
L Menifield Submission · R2 Jul '23
L Hill KO/TKO · R1 Dec '21
L Smith KO/TKO · R1 Apr '21
Bellato13-3-1
W Fernandez KO/TKO · R1 Mar '26
L Stirling Decision · R3 Sep '25
W Potieria KO/TKO · R2 Dec '23