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UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · breakdown

UFC 291 | Dustin Poirier vs Justin Gaethje | Full Card Breakdown, Picks, and Betting Tips

BM Broke Bets MMA52% hit
35 months ago 2W–9L
Picks, timestamped entry price locked at moment of pick · line tracked since · best price in any region · close = day before the event
MM Miranda Maverick v Priscila Cachoeira PROP · DECISION LOST
“I like Miranda Maverick Miranda Maverick Mavericks still in this situation um for the most part Miranda Maverick Miranda Maverick Maverick you know okay for a decent Fighter um she in my opinion what I see in her is that I think she can out wrestle the non-wrestler chicks and that's kind of her way of winning... I think Miranda Maverick can out wrestle this one to a decision um there's also a chance of a submission in there although I do think cachuera holds all of like the cards on the feet... think that she gets takedowns and chill around so take her by decision”
Moneyline since pick CLV −4%
◆ entry$1.33 close$1.38
Maverick’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
CV C.J. Vergara v Vinicius Salvador PROP · KO/TKO LOST
“taking C.J. Vergara Vergara in this fight um C.J. Vergara verdar is nothing special but he does bring some good car to the table and I think um one of those is just durability I can't find many of these Fighters uh I can eat all the punches and keep coming moving forward and have a maintain their gas tank and do all these things um super well as C.J. Vergara Vergara he can grapple um you know that last fight of him running around with uh Daniel asserta chasing him um good example of being able to survive the the storm and Daniel Lucero I know he's not the best fighter but he is very dangerous in round one and uh I think C.J. Vergara just uh can Outlast this fight with his cardio and Pace against Vinicius Salvador Vinicius Salvador just didn't look very good in his UFC debut um getting held down for a good majority of the fight for uh against albemarano and uh I think C.J. Vergara can find a Knockout late in this round I think Vinicius Salvador's gonna be really sucking wind when this fight gets late so what do you thinking here... yeah give me C.J. Vergara Vergara knockout round three”
Moneyline since pick CLV −4%
◆ entry$1.61 close$1.67
Vergara’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
JM Jake Matthews v Darrius Flowers PROP · DECISION LOST
“taking Jake Matthews here uh Darrius Flowers Darrius Flowers on short notice here just got his fight canceled with Miguel Baeza um and that fight would have been very close but um in this case here uh Darrius Flowers you know pretty decent fighter I think that record um you know he hasn't fought the best opponents on some of the LFA fights but um you know this guy does is like really short and stocky and does have some power in his hands and it's a little bit concerning he has decent hips with no wrestling and uh I don't see him Landing the takedowns on Jake but he still can put on a competitive fight here and uh I think Jake can just out Point people pretty well... so I like to know when it's a decision here yeah especially on short notice for Darrius Flowers too um like you said a short and stocky carries a lot of muscle um I think I think uh elevation will will hurt him here as well so um and he hasn't been to decision um many times before so a lot of his fights are ending in round one or two so I think Matthew used with the um experience and better cardio I like him to win this fight... yeah Matthew's by decision”
Moneyline since pick CLV −6%
◆ entry$1.33 close$1.42
Matthews’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
UM Uroš Medić v Matthew Semelsberger PROP · DECISION LOST
“taking Uroš Medić here as an underdog um medici's coming up to lightweight or excuse me uh welterweight from lightweight um a pretty long and lanky uh lightweight very good with his range management and uh I think that he's just gonna be able to have a little bit more bounce and uh Point fighting here than uh Matthew Semelsberger Matthew Semelsberger has... so yeah give me Uroš Medić yeah I think uh symbols yeah like you said someone's Burger is super tough super durable um uh in that Jake Matthews fight I mean he knocked down Matthews three times and he couldn't get him out of there in that one um knock down Jeremiah Wells two or three times too yeah exactly and I don't I don't think he's been knocked down in the UFC yet um simels Burger um but yeah I I just see uh Matic Matic being a lot faster here with that chat moving in and out um and like he said his range management is really good too so um yeah interested to see how we'll look on the scales but um I don't think that'll affect him too much moving up uh awake last year yeah I think the the scary thing that Matthew Semelsberger does is that I mean he's not very great with the jab or anything but that right hand just right down the middle there's no Telegraph on it it just sits right there out in range and it snaps the distance real fast so that's kind of his way of winning it's on that counter punch and if I mean if you watch Jake Matthews fights um the dude doesn't really keep his hands up to protect his face a lot a lot of his movement is how he's protecting his face and those knockdowns Jeremiah Wells is just you know Reckless and uh simmonsberger had some bad fight IQ in that fight sits like sitting on his back the entire round after doing a knock down just not really the strategy you want to see out of a fighter um he's pretty consistent with what he does but I think the the performance that I reference back to is the Alex merono fight I think medic should uh emulate something very similar what Alex morono did to uh Matt semmel's murder and like like you were saying speed speed in this a fight and uh cardio um over that that course those three rounds that elevation could be a big deal so yeah I like uh Uroš Medić here as well um by decision”
Moneyline since pick CLV −17%
◆ entry$2.32 close$2.80
Medić’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
DP Dustin Poirier v Justin Gaethje PROP · KO/TKO LOST
“I'm a diamond man I've been a diamond man honestly I'm not even the biggest fan of Justin Gaethje gagey I I know I'm throwing a little bit of heat out here but I think Justin Gaethje Gage is a little bit of a casuals uh fan I mean if you're saying if you're a Justin Gaethje Gaethje fan I'm sure anyone watching this video is not a casual because you're probably not coming into the deep depths of YouTube to come watch some retards talk about talk about I don't know a EVENT_DETAILS belt but a little I think his following is weird Justin Gaethje days you like the UFC I feel like will do anything for this guy um you know he's fighting they fight Charles Oliveira in his like Hometown area uh in his home state and then we're doing the EVENT_DETAILS battle in elevation where just engagey trains and it doesn't even make sense like no one thinks of like the EVENT_DETAILS like the baddest [ __ ] where should we go to do this fight let's go to Salt Lake City because that's where all those bad [ __ ] are it doesn't make any sense to me um and it's totally I think targeted an advantage towards deji for the UFC it's like ah we'll Dave the guy with a cardio advantage and elevation the fight uh here so it's a little bit tough and I think that uh I would make Dustin Poirier Poirier a bigger favorite in this fight but that elevation Factor pulls back some some of the uh chances of him winning I liked poirier's boxing better and I like him by a third round knockout... yeah I like Dustin Poirier Poirier there's gonna be a lot of damage um accumulated early on so I think uh third round would be be a good finish uh around here”
Moneyline since pick CLV +3%
◆ entry$1.77 close$1.72
Poirier’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
BG Bobby Green v Tony Ferguson PROP · DECISION LOST
“gotta take Bobby Green King Green here um came off a weird last fight with that head butt somewhat was close up until that point but the boxing uh that Bobby Green drains didn't bring to this fight and uh for Tony Ferguson Ferguson on a losing streak five straight losses and uh looked remarkably different versus Nate Diaz um I just think it's gonna be an uphill battle for him... I think Bobby Green Green can just out box him to a decision... so Bobby Green Bobby Green by decision”
Moneyline since pick CLV +2%
◆ entry$1.31 close$1.28
Green’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
KH Kevin Holland v Michael Chiesa PROP · KO/TKO LOST
“gotta take Kevin Holland here um chiesta a bit of a one-trick pony and a lot of people know that and a lot of people know that Kevin Holland uh has struggled with uh existing wrestlers before but at 170 being so big and GS is pretty big for uh welterweight as well but uh I think that uh Michael Chiesa he's on this break right now and we've seen Kevin Holland actually Escape some bad positions from some Grapplers... I have a feeling Kevin Hollins just gonna pull this one off so active probably the most active male fighter in the UFC um over the course the last three years I think he has to be but uh yeah give me Kevin Holland knockout round two”
Moneyline since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.71 close$1.71
Holland’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
JB Jan Błachowicz v Alex Pereira PROP · DECISION LOST
“gotta pick Wonderboy the Striking man um Alex Alex Pereira as well he's been looking very good in his fights um and mainly because he's not doing backflips as often in his fights anymore... I think Wonderboy um with that last performance versus Kevin Holland doesn't slow down as much in this fight and I must say he gets a knockout... so yeah give me Wonder Boy the nicest [ __ ] by uh knockout round two”
Moneyline since pick CLV −3%
◆ entry$1.88 close$1.93
Błachowicz’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
DL Derrick Lewis v Marcos Rogério de Lima PROP · KO/TKO WON
“taking Derrick Lewis here uh for uh this fight I think the fight style is just hard to predict with him because uh he's the type of guy where he just Waits until that big punch comes and you just have to wait to see if it happens and uh in this case I think he can rebound um this is an attainable fight... I'm feeling a Derrick Lewis knockout in the first round... yeah Derrick Lewis it's not in Texas so it's not in Texas and uh he's not facing sealed gone or any of these people all right Lewis KO round one”
Moneyline since pick CLV −16%
◆ entry$2.55 close$3.03
Lewis’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
GB Gabriel Bonfim v Trevin Giles PROP · KO/TKO LOST
“taking Gabriel Bonfim here um I think the the main component of this is uh Missing me a really good striking match for the time I think it's on the feet um Chapman Dallas is really good uh lead hand I mean he's a phenomenal jab if you've watched I mean any of his fights you've seen that jab um and his lead lead Hook is pretty good as well uh he's a very well-rounded fighter good wrestling but uh I know one of the main things about him I think is that I wouldn't say he's super chinny because he's getting knocked out by power punchers but even in the Preston Parsons fight he got knocked down rocked like once or twice um from Big punches there and I think Gabriel Bonfim Bonfim national champion boxer in Brazil um with his pressure and the punches he wants to throw to knock people out I mean you watch that Contender series fight with Trey Waters he's throwing the kill and against Lizette as he came to kill right away uh I gotta pick a knockout in the first round for Bond theme... yeah I still think Gabriel Bonfim Bonfim gets it done”
Moneyline since pick CLV +2%
◆ entry$1.35 close$1.32
Bonfim’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
RK Roman Kopylov v Claudio Ribeiro PROP · KO/TKO WON
“taking uh Roman Kopylov Roman Kopylov Kopylov here um this guy I don't know he looked incredibly big in his last fight versus poonahawi Soriano um those guys faced off he just looked a lot bigger he's much more technical on the feet if you just take what Claudia Claudio Ribeiro did in uh his first two UFC fights... I think that uh he can take this one for a round two knockout... so yeah give me Roman Kopylov copy love I think that he gets it done inside the distance”
Moneyline since pick CLV −5%
◆ entry$1.44 close$1.52
Kopylov’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted