UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · breakdown

My Full Card Predictions & Breakdown For UFC 291.

35 months ago 2W–7L · -1.5u

Picks, timestamped entry price locked at moment of pick · line tracked since · best price in any region · close = day before the event

Matthew Semelsberger v Uroš Medić PROP · KO/TKO LOST

“so I'm gonna pick Matthew Semelsberger to win this fight I think he's going to be patient I think he's going to be getting beat early on beat to the punch because of the speed of Uroš Medić who is moving up but ultimately he's going to be willing to take a couple of odos's shots in order to land one of his own and even if he doesn't get the TKO I think he will drop odos medidge a couple of times in multiple rounds and let's hope the judges don't Rob him this time but yeah that's going to be my pick otos medic has some pop in his hands but I've never seen him drop anyone that badly he kind of just wobbles people and jumps on them and overwhelms them a little bit but I'm gonna go with Matthew Semelsberger I think he's a pretty decent Striker and this is a big step up in competition for Uroš Medić this guy's only fought like his best opponent has been Jalen Turner he lost that fight um he didn't really get ko'd he got tko'd with body shots that's really what got to him but he's been out of the cage for a year and he's still much much more inexperienced compared to Matthew semmelsberger who's been very active throughout the past couple years in the UFC so I'm going to be picking him to win this one either by a TKO or a decision”

fight iq ↗

Moneyline since pick CLV +8%

◆ entry$1.62 → close$1.50

Semelsberger’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted

Roman Kopylov v Claudio Ribeiro MONEYLINE WON

“I'm gonna be picking myself bro”

fight iq ↗

Line since pick CLV +0%

◆ entry$1.52 → close$1.52

entry: BetUS · best in any region at publish

Gabriel Bonfim v Trevin Giles PROP · KO/TKO LOST

“I'm gonna go with Gabriel Bonfim I think he's gonna walk traven Giles down he's gonna put Giles in the back foot he's eventually gonna shoot for a takedown and he'll try to submit Giles I think he's probably gonna get this one done by TKO on the ground or submission”

fight iq ↗

Moneyline since pick CLV +2%

◆ entry$1.35 → close$1.32

Bonfim’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted

Marcos Rogério de Lima v Derrick Lewis PROP · KO/TKO LOST

“I'm going with Marcos de Lima in the first round by a TKO”

fight iq ↗

Moneyline since pick CLV +0%

◆ entry$1.53 → close$1.53

Lima’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted

Michael Chiesa v Kevin Holland PROP · SUBMISSION LOST

“I'm gonna go with Michael kiessa by a sub I think he's going to take Kevin Holland down I think he's going to get the back and I think he's going to choke him out”

fight iq ↗

Moneyline since pick CLV +0%

◆ entry$2.30 → close$2.30

Chiesa’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted

Alex Pereira v Jan Błachowicz PROP · DECISION WON

“I'm gonna pick Stephen Thompson to win this by decision”

fight iq ↗

Moneyline since pick CLV +0%

◆ entry$2.00 → close$2.00

Pereira’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted

Bobby Green v Tony Ferguson PROP · DECISION LOST

“I'm gonna go with Bobby Green I'm gonna pick him by decision”

fight iq ↗

Moneyline since pick CLV +0%

◆ entry$1.28 → close$1.28

Green’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted

Jan Błachowicz v Alex Pereira PROP · SUBMISSION LOST

“my ultimate pick yamahovich to submit Alex Pereira Within the first round okay that's what I think is going to happen submit him or TKO I'm on the ground”

fight iq ↗

Moneyline since pick CLV +0%

◆ entry$1.93 → close$1.93

Błachowicz’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted · analyst stated $6.60

Dustin Poirier v Justin Gaethje PROP · KO/TKO LOST

“I'm gonna go with Dustin Porey via third round TKO”

fight iq ↗

Moneyline since pick CLV +3%

◆ entry$1.77 → close$1.72

Poirier’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted · analyst stated $2.66