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UFC 295: Procházka vs. Pereira · breakdown

UFC 295: Predictions and Breakdown

TH TheWeasle69% hit
32 months ago 5W–4L · +1.1u 9/10 graded
Picks, timestamped entry price locked at moment of pick · line tracked since · best price in any region · close = day before the event
BD Benoît Saint Denis v Matt Frevola MONEYLINE WON
“I ultimately do pick Beno St Denise to win this”
Line since pick CLV −1%
◆ entry$1.45 close$1.47
entry: Bovada · best in any region at publish
TR Tabatha Ricci v Loopy Godinez PROP · DECISION LOST
“I got toath the Richie against Loopy Godinez super Superior Grappler overall I think her Brazilian Jitsu and her Judo skills is really going to Trump gz here gz is going to try to look to beat her on the feet stop the takedowns keep it standing as long as possible but I think Richie is too experienced when it comes to the grappling if it gets into the clinch he could toss her and may even surprise a lot of people with some of her boxing in this one but I think ultimately she's going to win this because of the ground game”
Analyst’s stated line
no market data captured for this fight
MR Mateusz Rębecki v Roosevelt Roberts MONEYLINE WON
“I got Mateusz Rębecki against Roosevelt Roberts Rosal Roberts is looking better he has promise right he's very talented and he does have a big height Advantage going into this fight Mateusz Rębecki is only 5' 6 Roberts is like 6'1 6'2 so he could potentially try to catch him with some high kicks keep the jab on him threaten him with those lengthy Guillotines the way he's able to wrap around your neck is pretty crazy with that Long Reach but I do not see him dealing well with the pressure I think Mateusz Rębecki is going to walk him down find some big punches potentially try to take him to the ground and dominate with good heavy top control lending huge ground and pound shots”
Line since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.18 close$1.18
entry: BetMGM · best in any region at publish
NS Nazim Sadykhov v Viacheslav Borshchev MONEYLINE
“nazim sadikov versus Viacheslav Borshchev is another fight that looks pretty one-sided I think Nazim Sadykhov should be able to beat this I think he's a bit better than borchev almost everywhere the fight goes”
Line since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.80 now$1.80
entry: Coolbet · best in any region at publish
MM Mark Madsen v Jared Gordon PROP · DECISION LOST
“Jared Gordon versus Mark Madsen I got to go with Mark Madsen I mean his wrestling is topnotch that grand Dawson loss is a bit of a blemish now knowing how Grand Dawson perform against Bobby green but I think ultimately his wrestling overall should be able to get him through someone like jarro Gordon Jared Gordon's more of a striker I believe he's a brown belt iners Jutsu under Joshua Van so he can surprise Mark Madsen with some stuff perhaps even attack the legs we know wrestlers don't like that sort of thing especially greo Roman wrestlers like Mark Matson who obviously are not going to be used to leg attacks but it's harder to pull those off in MMA especially the later the rounds go when both the fighters are a bit slippery but I think Mark Matson overall should be able to use his athleticism to his Advantage here use his strength in the clinch take down jarro Gordon land big ground and pound shots and soften him up trying to also look for some submissions but I think ultimately he's going to win this by a decision”
Moneyline since pick CLV −2%
◆ entry$2.80 close$2.85
Madsen’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
JV Joshua Van v Kevin Borjas MONEYLINE WON
“Joshua Van versus Kevin Borjas both predominantly Strikers Joshua van has more of a marauding aggressive brawling kind of Style with some decent boxing technique he knows where to throw punches at times he knows how to slip even while he's brawling with you it's going to be hard to get that kind of fight out of Kevin Borjas though because boras has more of a karate base bladed stance always bouncing and looking for that power right hand from a distance to catch you with and he has a lot of power in it but I have seen him get head kicked before stunned by those and Joshua van is a very awkward head Kick K cat you at a very sneaky kind of angle boras is going to have to be very wary about those head kicks but the thing is I can also see Joshua van walking into one of those right hands he does have better head movement than boras but boras I believe has better footwork so I do think this fight is going to be pretty interesting to watch but I ultimately do like the more well-rounded striking style of Joshua van combined with good pressure and a lot of power for a flyweight this guy hits very very hard”
Line since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.45 close$1.45
entry: Coolbet · best in any region at publish
SP Sergei Pavlovich v Tom Aspinall PROP · KO/TKO LOST
“I got to go with Sergei Pavlovich knocking him out”
Moneyline since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$2.00 close$2.00
Pavlovich’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
AP Alex Pereira v Jiří Procházka PROP · KO/TKO WON
“I'm going to go with Alex Pereira in this fight and I'm going to go by a second round knockout”
Moneyline since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.91 close$1.91
Pereira’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
MD Mackenzie Dern v Jéssica Andrade PROP · SUBMISSION LOST
“I am ultimately going to pick Mackenzie Dern to win this by a second round submission”
Moneyline since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.51 close$1.51
Dern’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
SE Steve Erceg v Alessandro Costa PROP · DECISION WON
“I think Steve Erceg is going to be Alessandro Costa both guys are pretty good on the ground I would say Steve has a superior grappling skill set but allesandro Kaa hits pretty hard he definitely is going to have the power Advantage when it comes to the standup but I think ultimately Steve should win this fight by a decision”
Moneyline since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.54 close$1.54
Erceg’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted