UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · breakdown
Picks, timestamped
entry price locked at moment of pick · line tracked since · best price in any region · close = day before the event
CH
Chase Hooper
v Clay Guida
MONEYLINE
WON
Chase Hooper
v Clay Guida
MONEYLINE
WON
“so we'll put Shay super as a fine play he has the potential upside to get there but it's it's not likely and it's definitely not the most likely outcome”
Line since pick
CLV +2%
◆ entry$1.12
→
close$1.10
entry: Paddy Power · best in any region at publish
KA
Kai Asakura
v Alexandre Pantoja
MONEYLINE
LOST
Kai Asakura
v Alexandre Pantoja
MONEYLINE
LOST
“and then cigua he's just not winning often enough really you could use him for for a floor uh perspective maybe but even then he is expected to to lose by a finish most of the time so cliu definitely an mme punt only moving on Bryce Mitchell versus Kron Gracie”
Line since pick
CLV +0%
◆ entry$3.25
→
close$3.25
entry: BetAnything · best in any region at publish
CG
Clay Guida
v Chase Hooper
MONEYLINE
LOST
Clay Guida
v Chase Hooper
MONEYLINE
LOST
“cigua he's just not winning often enough really you could use him for for a floor uh perspective maybe but even then he is expected to to lose by a finish most of the time so cliu definitely an mme punt only”
Line since pick
CLV −6%
◆ entry$8.50
→
close$9.00
entry: Bally Bet · best in any region at publish
BM
Bryce Mitchell
v Kron Gracie
MONEYLINE
WON
Bryce Mitchell
v Kron Gracie
MONEYLINE
WON
“I think that Mitchell is a very fringey play because I I really do think that his his top top upside outcomes need a finish and I I just don't see it being that likely”
Line since pick
CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.14
→
close$1.14
entry: Paddy Power · best in any region at publish
KG
Kron Gracie
v Bryce Mitchell
MONEYLINE
LOST
Kron Gracie
v Bryce Mitchell
MONEYLINE
LOST
“Kron Gracie we'll talk about him a bit he's kind of submission or bust um and hey I mean at at six 7K sure as a punt why not but he's plus 650 you're you're just playing him as a punt you know not really any serious consideration”
Line since pick
CLV +0%
◆ entry$7.50
→
close$7.50
entry: BetOnline.ag · best in any region at publish
ŁB
Łukasz Brzeski
v Kennedy Nzechukwu
MONEYLINE
LOST
“kind of the uh Nuku versus Lucas breki Łukasz Brzeski I don't see any upside for him his win condition in my mind is a low scoring close decision he's already plus 500 to win not a lot of interest there”
Line since pick
CLV +7%
◆ entry$6.00
→
close$5.60
entry: Bally Bet · best in any region at publish
KN
Kennedy Nzechukwu
v Łukasz Brzeski
MONEYLINE
WON
Kennedy Nzechukwu
v Łukasz Brzeski
MONEYLINE
WON
“so we'll put Kennedy Nzechukwu as a a fine play I don't think he has that slate breaking upside that Bryce Mitchell and especially Chase Hooper could have like these 130s I don't think that Kennedy Nzechukwu has that outside of a first minute finish”
Line since pick
CLV −2%
◆ entry$1.18
→
close$1.20
entry: DraftKings · best in any region at publish
IG
Ian Machado Garry
v Shavkat Rakhmonov
MONEYLINE
LOST
Ian Machado Garry
v Shavkat Rakhmonov
MONEYLINE
LOST
“I think Ian Machado Garry is a great play now it does worry me because when I think of Ian Machado Garry I think where fantasy points go to die that's my first thought he's a low volume Striker he's very uh meticulous he's very selective with his shots he's very technical and he doesn't have a lot of takedown upside now what made me feel better about it was I looked at his last fight which was abysmal from a fantasy perspective 19 strikes two takedowns 65 strikes he put up 70 points 70 minus the 30 for decision win he put up 40 points right so you know 40 divided by three rounds um 13 13 times five rounds plus decision win that's that's 90 plus points and at only 7K I think that's good enough”
Line since pick
CLV +0%
◆ entry$4.00
→
close$4.00
entry = analyst’s stated line (no snapshot at publish)
SR
Shavkat Rakhmonov
v Ian Machado Garry
MONEYLINE
WON
Shavkat Rakhmonov
v Ian Machado Garry
MONEYLINE
WON
“shaat rakov Elite finishing upside he's won all of his fights by finish um so if he does if he wins by finish here at 9.2k it's probably enough now I don't want to talk about ownership but he will be high owned I'll just say that so that is something to think about”
Line since pick
—
no market data captured for this fight
DR
Dominick Reyes
v Anthony Smith
MONEYLINE
WON
Dominick Reyes
v Anthony Smith
MONEYLINE
WON
“Dominick Reyes should have some KO upside Anthony Smith once again I just don't see a ton of finishing upside from him and he's already three to one Underdog so I don't have a lot of interest in him”
Line since pick
CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.30
→
close$1.30
entry: Coolbet · best in any region at publish
AS
Anthony Smith
v Dominick Reyes
MONEYLINE
LOST
Anthony Smith
v Dominick Reyes
MONEYLINE
LOST
“we'll put r as a a good play here and Smith is is probably mme only”
Line since pick
CLV −4%
◆ entry$3.95
→
close$4.10
entry: BetOnline.ag · best in any region at publish
AV
Alexander Volkov
v Ciryl Gane
MONEYLINE
LOST
Alexander Volkov
v Ciryl Gane
MONEYLINE
LOST
“this fight just just I just don't see it going going anywhere you have both guys who are pretty much pure kickboxers um if anyone has a touch of takedown upside it's going to be Alexander Volkov but he's not a wrestler and I just don't see him going that route in this fight so you have over two and a half round line heavily Juiced I just don't see it for for seral Gan at 9k he's gonna need a knockout plus 700 in round one plus 300 itd it's just really not not good Alexander Volkov same thing”
Line since pick
CLV −2%
◆ entry$4.00
→
close$4.10
entry: SportsBet · best in any region at publish
CG
Ciryl Gane
v Alexander Volkov
MONEYLINE
WON
Ciryl Gane
v Alexander Volkov
MONEYLINE
WON
“I just don't see it for for seral Gan at 9k he's gonna need a knockout plus 700 in round one plus 300 itd it's just really not not good Alexander Volkov same thing so this fight's a a pass”
Line since pick
CLV −2%
◆ entry$1.29
→
close$1.31
entry: BetMGM · best in any region at publish
AS
Aljamain Sterling
v Movsar Evloev
MONEYLINE
LOST
Aljamain Sterling
v Movsar Evloev
MONEYLINE
LOST
“I think people see Aljamain Sterling former Champion you know has the accolades wins over P Jan all that stuff I just think that in this matchup he could be the illusion of value right you're getting Aljamain Sterling over over plus 200 it it seems like the line is wide but the more I look into it the more I just believe that Movsar Evloev is the night and day better better wrestler better Grappler”
Line since pick
CLV +6%
◆ entry$3.62
→
close$3.42
entry: Marathon Bet · best in any region at publish
ME
Movsar Evloev
v Aljamain Sterling
MONEYLINE
WON
Movsar Evloev
v Aljamain Sterling
MONEYLINE
WON
“I'm gonna be forced to put Sterling as a good play here um and I'm probably gonna be forced to put Movsar Evloev as a fringy play but if you want to know my person personal opinion with a little bit of bias I I I think it's avov or pass here I definitely have a lot more interest in the avov side”
Line since pick
CLV −3%
◆ entry$1.40
→
close$1.44
entry: BetAnything · best in any region at publish
AP
Alexandre Pantoja
v Kai Asakura
MONEYLINE
WON
Alexandre Pantoja
v Kai Asakura
MONEYLINE
WON
“Pantoja has the highest upside on EVENT_DETAILS pretty much every slate he's on 14343 it's just a you give this guy five rounds to work with grappling Pace strikes control time everything he's easily the best play on the Slate”
Line since pick
CLV −1%
◆ entry$1.40
→
close$1.42
entry: Paddy Power · best in any region at publish
BB
Bryan Battle
v Randy Brown
MONEYLINE
WON
Bryan Battle
v Randy Brown
MONEYLINE
WON
“we'll call Bryan Battle a fine play here maybe I'm just continuing to underestimate his finishing ability”
Line since pick
CLV −4%
◆ entry$1.50
→
close$1.57
entry: Paddy Power · best in any region at publish
RB
Randy Brown
v Bryan Battle
MONEYLINE
LOST
Randy Brown
v Bryan Battle
MONEYLINE
LOST
“Randy Brown I don't have any faith in his finishing ability uh I do think this line might be a bit wide for what it's worth but Randy Brown is not a high fantasy output guy so for DFS it's just really a tough play to get behind”
Line since pick
CLV +0%
◆ entry$2.90
→
close$2.90
entry: BetOnline.ag · best in any region at publish
VL
Vicente Luque
v Themba Gorimbo
MONEYLINE
WON
Vicente Luque
v Themba Gorimbo
MONEYLINE
WON
“luk I think is the preferred side here themba I just don't see the finishing upside um now thema does have takedown upside I guess he does yeah 75 I guess I have to I have to include themba as a a fringy play here but Luca is the preferred side”
Line since pick
CLV −2%
◆ entry$2.40
→
close$2.45
entry: Betsson · best in any region at publish
CD
Cody Durden
v Joshua Van
MONEYLINE
LOST
Cody Durden
v Joshua Van
MONEYLINE
LOST
“Cody deran I think is a great play wrestling upside Pace sneaky power in his hands I I think he's a great play here at 7.7k and then uh where is he Joshua Van volume upside some knockout upside he doesn't really have the takedown upside though so I need to see what his iotd line is here 135 it's not bad it's not bad I think that do I yeah we'll put him Joshua Vance's a good play definitely prefer Cody Durden though”
Line since pick
CLV −4%
◆ entry$2.35
→
close$2.45
entry: Bovada · best in any region at publish
JV
Joshua Van
v Cody Durden
MONEYLINE
WON
Joshua Van
v Cody Durden
MONEYLINE
WON
“and then uh where is he Joshua Van volume upside some knockout upside he doesn't really have the takedown upside though so I need to see what his iotd line is here 135 it's not bad it's not bad I think that do I yeah we'll put him Joshua Vance's a good play definitely prefer Cody Durden though”
Line since pick
CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.67
→
close$1.67
entry: BetMGM · best in any region at publish
NL
Nate Landwehr
v Choi Doo-ho
MONEYLINE
LOST
Nate Landwehr
v Choi Doo-ho
MONEYLINE
LOST
“Nate lwar comes forward aggressive gets hit um he just he's always in a fun fight he's always in a a war and that that typically is is very strong uh for DFS and you have Choi Doo-ho who knocks out a lot of guys as well you see most of his wins are by knockout so I think both sides of this are are very good Targets this week”
Line since pick
—
no market data captured for this fight
CD
Choi Doo-ho
v Nate Landwehr
MONEYLINE
WON
“you have Choi Doo-ho who knocks out a lot of guys as well you see most of his wins are by knockout so I think both sides of this are are very good Targets this week”
Line since pick
—
no market data captured for this fight
MG
Max Griffin
v Michael Chiesa
MONEYLINE
LOST
Max Griffin
v Michael Chiesa
MONEYLINE
LOST
“Michael kiasa has the take down and grappling upside here he's taken a bit of money actually so's he's now the favorite at a slight Underdog price of 7.9k so KSA for that reason grappling upside plus a bit of line value he's a good play”
Line since pick
CLV −7%
◆ entry$1.95
→
close$2.10
entry: Pinnacle · best in any region at publish
MC
Michael Chiesa
v Max Griffin
MONEYLINE
WON
Michael Chiesa
v Max Griffin
MONEYLINE
WON
“Max Griffin I wish the finishing upside was was a bit better than this I think that he's in play but it's just it's a very fringy play you kind of you need him to finish to get there and it's just not looking that likely”
Line since pick
CLV +5%
◆ entry$2.01
→
close$1.92
entry: SportsBet · best in any region at publish
CW
Chris Weidman
v Eryk Anders
MONEYLINE
LOST
Chris Weidman
v Eryk Anders
MONEYLINE
LOST
“you have um Chris Weidman with a bit of takeown upside but it's not really the kind you want it's not that high volume of strikes um it's more so just a takedown here and there and then Eryk Anders uh low volume Striker with a bad itd line”
Line since pick
CLV +0%
◆ entry$2.00
→
close$2.00
entry: Betsson · best in any region at publish
EA
Eryk Anders
v Chris Weidman
MONEYLINE
WON
Eryk Anders
v Chris Weidman
MONEYLINE
WON
“the one thing I'll say about this fight again I don't want to talk about ownership too much but if if there's one guy that I think can win you the entire thing solo from this fight it would be Eryk Anders with a round one KO and I think that's what you're going to need you're to for this fight to to get there from on the Eryk Anders side you probably need around one KO from him plus 700 it's not likely”
Line since pick
CLV +0%
◆ entry$2.05
→
close$2.05
entry: TAB · best in any region at publish
TG
Themba Gorimbo
v Vicente Luque
MONEYLINE
LOST
—
Themba Gorimbo
v Vicente Luque
MONEYLINE
LOST
—
“thema I just don't see the finishing upside um now thema does have takedown upside I guess he does yeah 75 I guess I have to I have to include themba as a a fringy play here”
Line since pick
CLV +1%
◆ entry$1.68
→
close$1.67
entry: DraftKings · best in any region at publish