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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Madsen v Guida Lightweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
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Consensus4 picks · conf 10/99
Madsen 2
2 Guida
TW pick Madsen
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Madsen 12-2 VS 38-21 Guida
— height 5'7"
— weight 155 lb
— reach 70"
41 age 44
Orthodox stance Orthodox
3.6 strikes landed / min 2.6
49% striking accuracy 33%
4.0 strikes absorbed / min 3.0
52% striking defence 61%
2.9 takedowns / 15 min 3.1
66% takedown accuracy 36%
62% takedown defence 67%
0.0 submissions / 15 min 0.6
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TG THE MMA GURU picks Mark Madsen “i don't even think Mark Madsen in all honesty”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Clay Guida “cardio is going to go to Clay Guida by a significant margin you know um experience taguida by a significant margin”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Mark Madsen VALUE “i think he does win i think he could he can score very well”
WM Walk The Line MMA picks Mark Madsen “i like marco madsen here i like marco manson he's a minus 165 favorite” $1.61
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Clay Guida VALUE “i'm going to take clay guida” $2.30
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Mark Madsen VALUE “i'll take courtney casey” $1.50
Recent form last five, most recent first
Madsen12-2
L Gordon KO/TKO · R1 Nov '23
L Dawson Submission · R3 Nov '22
W Pichel Decision · R3 Apr '22
W Guida Decision · R3 Aug '21
W Hubbard Decision · R3 Mar '20
Guida38-21
L Hooper Submission · R1 Dec '24
L Silva Decision · R3 Dec '23
L García Decision · R3 Apr '23
W Holtzman Decision · R3 Dec '22
L Puelles Submission · R1 Apr '22