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UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang
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JW ZM Walker vs MingyangMain Card · Light Heavyweight BO AS Ortega vs SterlingMain Card · Catchweight SP WC Pavlovich vs Cortes-AcostaMain Card · Heavyweight US DN Satybaldiev vs NurgozhayPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight LK CJ Kavanagh vs JohnsonPreliminary Card · Flyweight SM KB Mudaerji vs BorjasMain Card · Flyweight TN KC Nueraji vs CrosbieMain Card · Welterweight MH GY Hayisaer vs YoungPreliminary Card · Lightweight RZ AH Zhu vs HubbardPreliminary Card · Lightweight MP KD Pereira vs DaukausPreliminary Card · Middleweight YZ WW Zha vs WilsonPreliminary Card · Featherweight XL YS Long vs Su-youngPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
BEST PRICE We back Ortega over Sterling · Catchweight Our fair value$4.61 Unibet pays above fair $5.20
Where to back Ortega best price · region · EV vs fair $4.61
US Bally Bet $5.20 +13%
UK Unibet (UK) $5.20 +13%
EU Unibet (NL) $5.20 +13%
AU Unibet $5.20 +13%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $3.64
Consensus46 picks · conf 66/99
Ortega 12
34 Sterling
DZBMUU pick Ortega
How it endsmethod calls · Ortega · crowd line
KO/TKO 1 $27.65
Submission 4 $6.91
Decision 1 $27.65
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Ortega 16-5 VS 25-5 Sterling
5'8" height 5'7"
153 lb weight 153 lb
69" reach 71"
35 age 36
Switch stance Orthodox
5.7 strikes landed / min 5.7
40% striking accuracy 44%
4.3 strikes absorbed / min 2.5
49% striking defence 55%
0.9 takedowns / 15 min 1.5
44% takedown accuracy 27%
58% takedown defence 63%
1.4 submissions / 15 min 1.1
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market22% vs 19%
Consensus12 of 46 analysts
Sharpest angleOrtega by Submission — 4 of 6 method calls
Recommendation Back Ortega @ $5.20 · fair $4.61 +13% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
GM GLO MMA picks Brian Ortega VALUE “I'm going to go and pick Aljine Aljamain Sterling because he has the better grappling.”
MM MMAPREDICTIONGURU picks Aljamain Sterling “Almaine Sterling in the co-main event is my prediction there.”
FM FORGE MMA picks Aljamain Sterling “I'm going with Aljo. I'm going with the Jamaican sensation. ... He's going to beat Brian Ortega.”
US Uselyis picks Aljamain Sterling “Give me al money line - 370” $1.27
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Aljamain Sterling “I'm going Al Lane. Aljamain Sterling for the W.”
BB Bart Barrett picks Aljamain Sterling “I like Aljamain Sterling quite a bit here... expect a heavy grappling match uh with Aljamain Sterling controlling majority of the fight.”
JO JorgeFlyingKnee picks Brian Ortega “I got to give it to Brian Ortega”
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Brian Ortega VALUE “I would go with Brian Ortega. At those odds, I would have to go underdog or pass completely.”
UF UFCThoughts picks Brian Ortega “I'm going to pick Brian Ortega in a five round fight over Aljain Funk Master Sterling.”
SN SPORTS JEDI NETWORK picks Brian Ortega VALUE
WP We Want Picks picks Aljamain Sterling VALUE “Aljamain Sterling is going to win this fight”
LM Leftlane MMA picks Aljamain Sterling “give me Aljamain Sterling. Um, and I desperately need him to win cuz like all my bets for the week require Aljamain Sterling to win. So, um, yeah, Aljamain Sterling, I'm going to say decision.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Ortega16-5
L Sterling Decision · R5 Aug '25
L Lopes Decision · R3 Sep '24
W Rodríguez Submission · R3 Feb '24
L Rodríguez KO/TKO · R1 Jul '22
L Volkanovski Decision · R5 Sep '21
Sterling25-5
W Zalal Decision · R5 Apr '26
W Ortega Decision · R5 Aug '25
L Evloev Decision · R3 Dec '24
W Kattar Decision · R3 Apr '24
L O'Malley KO/TKO · R2 Aug '23