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UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang
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JW ZM Walker vs MingyangMain Card · Light Heavyweight BO AS Ortega vs SterlingMain Card · Catchweight SP WC Pavlovich vs Cortes-AcostaMain Card · Heavyweight US DN Satybaldiev vs NurgozhayPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight LK CJ Kavanagh vs JohnsonPreliminary Card · Flyweight SM KB Mudaerji vs BorjasMain Card · Flyweight TN KC Nueraji vs CrosbieMain Card · Welterweight MH GY Hayisaer vs YoungPreliminary Card · Lightweight RZ AH Zhu vs HubbardPreliminary Card · Lightweight MP KD Pereira vs DaukausPreliminary Card · Middleweight YZ WW Zha vs WilsonPreliminary Card · Featherweight XL YS Long vs Su-youngPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
BEST PRICE We back Pereira over Daukaus · Middleweight Our fair value$1.30 Polymarket pays above fair $1.48
Where to back Pereira best price · region · EV vs fair $1.30
US Caesars $1.43 +10%
UK Paddy Power $1.40 +8%
EU Pinnacle $1.44 +11%
AU Neds $1.42 +9%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $1.44
Consensus35 picks · conf 58/99
Pereira 33
2 Daukaus
TMLBLT pick Pereira
How it endsmethod calls · Pereira · crowd line
KO/TKO 38 $1.40
Decision 3 $17.75
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Pereira 32-14 VS 17-4 Daukaus
6'1" height 6'2"
186 lb weight 186 lb
73" reach 76"
32 age 33
Orthodox stance Southpaw
5.5 strikes landed / min 2.9
49% striking accuracy 60%
4.0 strikes absorbed / min 3.4
59% striking defence 59%
1.3 takedowns / 15 min 2.7
59% takedown accuracy 35%
59% takedown defence 88%
1.9 submissions / 15 min 0.2
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market77% vs 68%
Consensus33 of 35 analysts
Sharpest anglePereira by KO/TKO — 38 of 41 method calls
Recommendation Back Pereira @ $1.48 · fair $1.30 +14% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
DM DMan&MariPulls picks Michel Pereira “I got Michelle Michel Pereira minus 270.” $1.37
DM DMan&MariPulls picks Kyle Daukaus “I got Kyle Daukaus on this one. Plus 220.” $3.20
MM MMAPREDICTIONGURU picks Michel Pereira “if you're asking me who should win and who I think is going to win, Michel Pereira is that guy.”
FM FORGE MMA picks Michel Pereira “I'm going to pick Michel Pereira.” $1.38
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Michel Pereira VALUE “I think Michel Pereira Michel Pereira is gonna violently knock Kyle Daukaus Dawkins out in the first round.” $2.05
JO JorgeFlyingKnee picks Michel Pereira “I think Michel Pereira will get the KO in this fight”
LS Last Real Sport picks Michel Pereira VALUE “I'm picking Michel Pereira to win.”
UF UFCThoughts picks Michel Pereira “I'm going to be picking Michel Pereira over Kyle Daukaus.”
WP We Want Picks picks Michel Pereira VALUE “So, Michel Pereira is going to be the pick”
LM Leftlane MMA picks Michel Pereira “I'm going to trust you one more time. Don't let me down, [ __ ] Michel Pereira.”
BE BeewolfMMA picks Michel Pereira “Michel Pereira, he lucked out because Marco Tulio was about to kick his ass.”
MN Mayo Media Network picks Kyle Daukaus VALUE “Give me Dakus for the upset here.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Pereira32-14
L Magomedov Decision · R3 Jun '26
W Reese Decision · R3 Feb '26
L Daukaus KO/TKO · R1 Aug '25
L Magomedov Decision · R3 Apr '25
L Hernandez KO/TKO · R5 Oct '24
Daukaus17-4
L Nickal KO/TKO · R1 Jun '26
W Meerschaert Submission · R1 Nov '25
W Pereira KO/TKO · R1 Aug '25
L Anders KO/TKO · R2 Dec '22
L Dolidze KO/TKO · R1 Jun '22