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UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
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DL JS Lopes vs SilvaMain Card · Featherweight RG JG García vs GordonMain Card · Lightweight KG DS Gastelum vs StoltzfusMain Card · Catchweight SL QL Luna vs LeMain Card · Bantamweight AH CF Hernandez vs FerreiraMain Card · Lightweight CP JS Puelles vs SilvaPreliminary Card · Lightweight TS AL Suarez vs LemosPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight JA LG Aguilar vs GurulePreliminary Card · Flyweight ZR SD Reese vs DumasPreliminary Card · Middleweight AC AC Costa vs CoriaPreliminary Card · Flyweight MR AP Rendon vs PereiraPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight RS DD Sezinando vs DonchenkoPreliminary Card · Welterweight RF DM Font vs MartínezMain Card · Bantamweight DT JM Todorović vs MedinaPreliminary Card · Middleweight
BEST PRICE We back Gastelum over Stoltzfus · Catchweight Our fair value$1.40 Neds pays above fair $1.45
Where to back Gastelum best price · region · EV vs fair $1.40
US BetOnline.ag $1.45 +4%
UK Betway $1.44 +3%
EU Pinnacle $1.45 +4%
AU Neds $1.45 +4%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $1.52
Consensus106 picks · conf 88/99
Gastelum 82
24 Stoltzfus
EBNTPK pick Gastelum
How it endsmethod calls · Gastelum · crowd line
KO/TKO 16 $3.32
Decision 22 $2.42
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Gastelum 21-10 VS 16-8 Stoltzfus
5'9" height 6'0"
191 lb weight 185 lb
71" reach 75"
34 age 34
Southpaw stance Orthodox
4.4 strikes landed / min 3.6
52% striking accuracy 44%
4.9 strikes absorbed / min 2.5
74% striking defence 50%
1.9 takedowns / 15 min 1.5
32% takedown accuracy 71%
86% takedown defence 52%
1.2 submissions / 15 min 0.9
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market71% vs 69%
Consensus82 of 106 analysts
Sharpest angleGastelum by Decision — 22 of 38 method calls
Recommendation Back Gastelum @ $1.45 · fair $1.40 +4% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
KM Keep it a Buck Media picks Dustin Stoltzfus “Dustin Stoltzfus Stall's fist to win by decision.”
DM DMan&MariPulls picks Kelvin Gastelum “going to go with Kelvin Gastelum. We're going to go with Kelvin Gastelum. I'm going to go with Kelvin Gastelum on this”
UW Uncle Weezy picks Kelvin Gastelum “I think he's going to win the minutes of this fight.”
LE LAS 8 ESQUINAS picks Kelvin Gastelum VALUE “Kelvin Gastelum Dustin Stoltzfus иҿагыла”
LE LAS 8 ESQUINAS picks Dustin Stoltzfus “Dustin Stoltzfus иҿагыла”
TO The Handsum One picks Dustin Stoltzfus VALUE “we are going to go with Dustin Stoltzfus over Kelvin Gastelum. This is my ZAG play.”
JA Jarheadislive picks Kelvin Gastelum “Atu Carlos Diego Ferreira wagittaamat yabtek, Kelvin Gastelum”
VM Veintitrés MMA picks Kelvin Gastelum VALUE “Kelvin Gastelum যুঁজাৰু”
BO BotmfeederMMA picks Kelvin Gastelum “We're going with Calvin Gastelam.”
RA Ringside Report Network - Combat Sports Authority picks Dustin Stoltzfus VALUE “I'm going to go with uh Dustin Stoltzfus to beat Kelvin Gastelum.”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Kelvin Gastelum VALUE “I'm picking Gastelum to get a decision.”
BG Bettor in Green picks Kelvin Gastelum “I really like Kelvin Gastelum in this fight.” $1.41
Recent form last five, most recent first
Gastelum21-10
L Luque Submission · R1 Apr '26
W Stoltzfus Decision · R3 Sep '25
L Pyfer Decision · R3 Jun '25
W Rodriguez Decision · R3 Jun '24
L Brady Submission · R3 Dec '23
Stoltzfus16-8
L Gastelum Decision · R3 Sep '25
L Ruziboev Decision · R3 May '25
W Barriault KO/TKO · R1 Nov '24
L Ferreira KO/TKO · R1 Jun '24
W Soriano Submission · R2 Dec '23