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UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
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BEST PRICE We back Santos Aguilar over Gurule · Flyweight Our fair value$2.29 Coolbet pays above fair $2.78
Where to back Santos Aguilar best price · region · EV vs fair $2.29
US FanDuel $2.76 +20%
UK Unibet (UK) $2.70 +18%
EU Coolbet $2.78 +21%
AU PlayUp $2.75 +20%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $2.70
Consensus84 picks · conf 80/99
Santos Aguilar 49
35 Gurule
TPLBST pick Santos Aguilar
How it endsmethod calls · Santos Aguilar · crowd line
KO/TKO 3 $25.21
Submission 13 $5.82
Decision 15 $5.04
None 2 $37.82
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Santos Aguilar 12-4 VS 11-3 Gurule
5'4" height 5'5"
125 lb weight 125 lb
63" reach 64"
30 age 32
Orthodox stance Orthodox
5.3 strikes landed / min 4.6
50% striking accuracy 62%
2.6 strikes absorbed / min 3.2
48% striking defence 61%
3.0 takedowns / 15 min 2.1
29% takedown accuracy 74%
53% takedown defence 85%
1.0 submissions / 15 min 0.3
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market44% vs 36%
Consensus49 of 84 analysts
Sharpest angleSantos Aguilar by Decision — 15 of 33 method calls
Recommendation Back Santos Aguilar @ $2.78 · fair $2.29 +21% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
PP Pick Pocket Podcast picks Jesús Santos Aguilar VALUE “I love Jesús Santos Aguilar to get it done inside the distance... Monsterette Rendone the Mexican on UFC... she can get her out of there.”
UW Uncle Weezy picks Jesús Santos Aguilar “I like Luis Gerle to win by decision.”
BO BotmfeederMMA picks Jesús Santos Aguilar VALUE “We're gonna go with Jesús Santos Aguilar.”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Jesús Santos Aguilar VALUE “I'm predicting Lewis Gerule to win.”
HN Hidden Source News picks Luis Gurule “My pick will be Luis Gerule, but I'll also sprinkle Jesús Santos Aguilar in some parlays just to cover my bases.”
SR SrodrMMABet picks Jesús Santos Aguilar “0.35 units in Jesús Santos Aguilar at plus 170” $2.70
TM Teo Talks MMA picks Jesús Santos Aguilar VALUE “Give me Jesus Aular to win this fight.”
TM The MMA Mathematician picks Jesús Santos Aguilar VALUE “I'm gonna pick the underdog here for good money. you know, good value underdog for Aguilar.” $2.80
AO Armchair Octagon picks Luis Gurule “I'm gonna have to go with Lewis Gerule.”
AO Armchair Octagon picks Jesús Santos Aguilar VALUE “I think he's fought the better competition.”
YO YoungPastey picks Jesús Santos Aguilar VALUE “We are going with Jesús Santos Aguilar plus 190. We are putting 1.05 units on it. People are sleeping on my boy Jesús Santos Aguilar.” $2.90
SH Showtime50k picks Jesús Santos Aguilar “I think Jesús Santos Aguilar is going to get the job done”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Santos Aguilar12-4
L Mudaerji Decision · R3 Mar '26
W Gurule Decision · R3 Sep '25
L Estevam Decision · R3 Feb '25
W Nicoll Submission · R1 Aug '24
W Mendonça Decision · R3 Feb '24
Gurule11-3
L Tsuruya Submission · R1 May '26
W Barez Decision · R3 May '26
L Coria Decision · R3 Feb '26
L Aguilar Decision · R3 Sep '25
L Osbourne KO/TKO · R2 Apr '25