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UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
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DL JS Lopes vs SilvaMain Card · Featherweight RG JG García vs GordonMain Card · Lightweight KG DS Gastelum vs StoltzfusMain Card · Catchweight SL QL Luna vs LeMain Card · Bantamweight AH CF Hernandez vs FerreiraMain Card · Lightweight CP JS Puelles vs SilvaPreliminary Card · Lightweight TS AL Suarez vs LemosPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight JA LG Aguilar vs GurulePreliminary Card · Flyweight ZR SD Reese vs DumasPreliminary Card · Middleweight AC AC Costa vs CoriaPreliminary Card · Flyweight MR AP Rendon vs PereiraPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight RS DD Sezinando vs DonchenkoPreliminary Card · Welterweight RF DM Font vs MartínezMain Card · Bantamweight DT JM Todorović vs MedinaPreliminary Card · Middleweight
BEST PRICE We back Hernandez over Diego Ferreira · Lightweight Our fair value$1.81 SportsBet pays above fair $2.01
Where to back Hernandez best price · region · EV vs fair $1.81
US FanDuel $2.00 +11%
UK Paddy Power $2.00 +11%
EU Pinnacle $2.01 +11%
AU SportsBet $2.01 +11%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $2.04
Consensus107 picks · conf 88/99
Hernandez 72
35 Diego Ferreira
TPBPPJ pick Hernandez
How it endsmethod calls · Hernandez · crowd line
KO/TKO 15 $3.98
Decision 18 $3.32
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Hernandez 18-8 VS 23-8 Diego Ferreira
5'9" height 5'5"
155 lb weight 215 lb
72" reach 64"
33 age —
Orthodox stance Switch
2.6 strikes landed / min 3.7
49% striking accuracy 58%
4.1 strikes absorbed / min 2.4
64% striking defence 64%
1.9 takedowns / 15 min 2.0
52% takedown accuracy 60%
58% takedown defence 80%
1.3 submissions / 15 min 1.6
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market55% vs 50%
Consensus72 of 107 analysts
Sharpest angleHernandez by Decision — 18 of 33 method calls
Recommendation Back Hernandez @ $2.01 · fair $1.81 +11% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
PP Pick Pocket Podcast picks Alexander Hernandez VALUE “I'm gonna take Alexander Hernandez here... I'm really confident in him in this fight.” $1.98
UW Uncle Weezy picks Carlos Diego Ferreira “I'm picking him to win it by third round knockout.”
LE LAS 8 ESQUINAS picks Carlos Diego Ferreira “Carlos Diego Ferreira. Уажәоуп”
LE LAS 8 ESQUINAS picks Alexander Hernandez VALUE “Alexander Hernandez дхынҳәит”
ND Nina Drama picks Alexander Hernandez
DA DagMMA picks Carlos Diego Ferreira “Carlos Diego Ferreira as a dog and picking Fera.”
JA Jarheadislive picks Carlos Diego Ferreira “Atu Carlos Diego Ferreira wagittaamat yabtek, Kelvin Gastelum”
BO BotmfeederMMA picks Alexander Hernandez “I'm going to take Alexander Hernandez on the line.”
RA Ringside Report Network - Combat Sports Authority picks Alexander Hernandez “end it with Alexander Alexander Hernandez as well.”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Alexander Hernandez VALUE “I like Alexander Hernandez.”
EV Evod9373 picks Alexander Hernandez “EVENT_DETAILS David Martinez Alexander Hernandez Alexander Hernandez Alexander Hernandez Diego Lopes”
HN Hidden Source News picks Alexander Hernandez “I'll side with Alexander Hernandez to get the win. My betting exposure here will be light, but I'll include him in a few small parlays.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Hernandez18-8
L García Decision · R3 Apr '26
W Ferreira KO/TKO · R2 Sep '25
W Hooper KO/TKO · R1 Aug '25
W Holobaugh Decision · R3 Mar '25
W Hubbard Decision · R3 Oct '24
Diego Ferreira23-8
L Hernandez KO/TKO · R2 Sep '25
L Dawson Decision · R3 Jan '25
W Rębecki KO/TKO · R3 May '24
W Johnson KO/TKO · R2 May '23
L Gamrot KO/TKO · R2 Dec '21