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UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown
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GB RB Bonfim vs BrownMain Card · Welterweight MS JM Schnell vs MoralesMain Card · Flyweight MS UM Salikhov vs MedićMain Card · Welterweight CP IB Padilla vs BonfimMain Card · Catchweight RS RB Simón vs BarcelosPreliminary Card · Bantamweight CD MT Duncan vs TulioMain Card · Middleweight HA JE Amil vs EmmersPreliminary Card · Featherweight MS JC Silva vs CavalcantiPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight JH MG Hokit vs GimenisPreliminary Card · Heavyweight MJ DM Johns vs MarcosPreliminary Card · Bantamweight TP DG Pennington vs GomesPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight JM ZR McVey vs ReesePreliminary Card · Catchweight
BEST PRICE We back Brown over Bonfim · Welterweight Our fair value$2.15 Betsson pays above fair $2.55
Where to back Brown best price · region · EV vs fair $2.15
US BetRivers $2.50 +16%
UK LeoVegas $2.50 +16%
EU Betsson $2.55 +19%
AU PlayUp $2.50 +16%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $2.44
Consensus132 picks · conf 99/99
Bonfim 50
82 Brown
MTDSMS pick Bonfim
How it endsmethod calls · Brown · crowd line
KO/TKO 8 $2.42
Decision 1 $19.34
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Bonfim 19-1 VS 20-7 Brown
6'1" height 6'3"
170 lb weight 171 lb
72" reach 78"
28 age 35
Orthodox stance Orthodox
5.8 strikes landed / min 4.4
42% striking accuracy 47%
4.4 strikes absorbed / min 3.2
62% striking defence 54%
2.9 takedowns / 15 min 0.7
75% takedown accuracy 39%
73% takedown defence 70%
1.9 submissions / 15 min 0.6
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market47% vs 39%
Consensus82 of 132 analysts
Sharpest angleBrown by KO/TKO — 8 of 9 method calls
Recommendation Back Brown @ $2.55 · fair $2.15 +19% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
GM GLO MMA picks Randy Brown VALUE “I'm going to go and pick Randy Brown to get this done. Probably by decision. Yes, I'm gonna be picking Randy Brown via Decision.”
WA WARTIMEMMA picks Randy Brown “I got Randy Brown as well. I got Randy Brown.”
FF Frozen Fists picks Randy Brown VALUE “I'm going to go Randy Brown with this one”
RX RX picks Randy Brown “Give me Randy Brown by knockout in a EVENT_DETAILS one or 11.”
WP We Want Picks picks Randy Brown “I am however picking Randy Brown ... But Randy Brown is my pick.”
MU MMA UNCENSORED picks Randy Brown “I like Randy Brown. I really do.”
MR MMA on the Rocks (MMA on the Rocks) picks Randy Brown VALUE “I'm betting on the underdog Randy Brown in the main event and And yeah, I'm going with Randy Brown.”
NA NarcoCopMMA picks Randy Brown VALUE “have to play Randy Brown ... Randy Brown by KO” $2.51
GI GiulianoArgenti picks Randy Brown VALUE “not gonna be able to touch Randy Brown I don't think.”
JA JakeGerberMMA picks Randy Brown “I got Randy Brown. I think Randy Brown beats him.”
MM MMAPREDICTIONGURU picks Gabriel Bonfim “Gabriel Bonfim is the fighter who will win”
DC Dougies Corner picks Gabriel Bonfim “I am also going with Gabriel Bonfim.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Bonfim19-1
W Muhammad Decision · R5 Jun '26
W Brown KO/TKO · R2 Nov '25
W Thompson Decision · R3 Jul '25
W Williams Submission · R2 Feb '25
W Loosa Decision · R3 Jul '24
Brown20-7
L Holland Decision · R3 Apr '26
L Bonfim KO/TKO · R2 Nov '25
W Dalby KO/TKO · R2 Apr '25
L Battle Decision · R3 Dec '24
W Santos Decision · R3 Jun '24