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UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown
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GB RB Bonfim vs BrownMain Card · Welterweight MS JM Schnell vs MoralesMain Card · Flyweight MS UM Salikhov vs MedićMain Card · Welterweight CP IB Padilla vs BonfimMain Card · Catchweight RS RB Simón vs BarcelosPreliminary Card · Bantamweight CD MT Duncan vs TulioMain Card · Middleweight HA JE Amil vs EmmersPreliminary Card · Featherweight MS JC Silva vs CavalcantiPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight JH MG Hokit vs GimenisPreliminary Card · Heavyweight MJ DM Johns vs MarcosPreliminary Card · Bantamweight TP DG Pennington vs GomesPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight JM ZR McVey vs ReesePreliminary Card · Catchweight
BEST PRICE We back Morales over Schnell · Flyweight Our fair value$1.25 Unibet (SE) pays above fair $1.36
Where to back Morales best price · region · EV vs fair $1.25
US BetRivers $1.24 -0%
UK William Hill (UK) $1.25 +0%
EU Unibet (SE) $1.36 +9%
AU Ladbrokes AU $1.24 -0%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $1.23
Consensus123 picks · conf 97/99
Schnell 16
107 Morales
MSFMRG pick Schnell
How it endsmethod calls · Morales · crowd line
KO/TKO 4 $4.05
Submission 7 $2.31
None 2 $8.10
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Schnell 17-10 VS 14-2 Morales
5'8" height 5'6"
126 lb weight 126 lb
70" reach 68"
36 age 31
Orthodox stance Switch
4.4 strikes landed / min 1.6
39% striking accuracy 37%
4.6 strikes absorbed / min 1.7
55% striking defence 60%
0.6 takedowns / 15 min 0.5
40% takedown accuracy 50%
50% takedown defence 23%
1.0 submissions / 15 min 2.6
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market80% vs 74%
Consensus107 of 123 analysts
Sharpest angleMorales by Submission — 7 of 13 method calls
Recommendation Back Morales @ $1.36 · fair $1.25 +9% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
GM GLO MMA picks Joseph Morales VALUE “I feel like uh Joseph Moral sorry Joseph Morales is going to get this done uh probably by first round submission.”
WA WARTIMEMMA picks Joseph Morales “I am going to pick Joseph Morales.”
MM MMAFightingonSBN picks Joseph Morales “I'm picking Joseph Morales to win.”
HZ Hank's War Zone picks Joseph Morales “I think uh Joseph Morales could beat him”
UC UFC - CELEBRITIES AND CLASSICS picks Joseph Morales “I'd say Joseph Morales Joseph Morales agree.”
MK Morning Kombat picks Joseph Morales “Are you all in on Joseph Morales's potential here at Flyweight?”
RX RX picks Joseph Morales “I'm going Joseph Morales by decision.”
DB Denver Sports Betting picks Joseph Morales “I have Joseph Morales.”
WP We Want Picks picks Joseph Morales “I think Joseph Morales wins this fight.”
MU MMA UNCENSORED picks Joseph Morales “Joseph Morales. I'm going to go with”
MR MMA on the Rocks (MMA on the Rocks) picks Joseph Morales “I had circled Joseph Morales to win”
NA NarcoCopMMA picks Joseph Morales VALUE “I think Joseph Morales, by the way,” $5.40
Recent form last five, most recent first
Schnell17-10
L Costa KO/TKO · R1 Jun '26
L Morales Submission · R1 Nov '25
W Flick Decision · R3 Apr '25
L Durden Submission · R2 Sep '24
L Erceg KO/TKO · R2 Mar '24
Morales14-2
W Schnell Submission · R1 Nov '25
W Idiris Submission · R2 Aug '25
L Shelton Decision · R3 Nov '18
L Figueiredo KO/TKO · R2 Feb '18
W Sanchez Submission · R1 Aug '17