MMA Prophecy
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UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown
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GB RB Bonfim vs BrownMain Card · Welterweight MS JM Schnell vs MoralesMain Card · Flyweight MS UM Salikhov vs MedićMain Card · Welterweight CP IB Padilla vs BonfimMain Card · Catchweight RS RB Simón vs BarcelosPreliminary Card · Bantamweight CD MT Duncan vs TulioMain Card · Middleweight HA JE Amil vs EmmersPreliminary Card · Featherweight MS JC Silva vs CavalcantiPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight JH MG Hokit vs GimenisPreliminary Card · Heavyweight MJ DM Johns vs MarcosPreliminary Card · Bantamweight TP DG Pennington vs GomesPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight JM ZR McVey vs ReesePreliminary Card · Catchweight
BEST PRICE We back Padilla over Bonfim · Catchweight Our fair value$2.10 LeoVegas (SE) pays above fair $2.45
Where to back Padilla best price · region · EV vs fair $2.10
US FanDuel $2.08 -1%
UK Betfair Sportsbook $2.10 -0%
EU LeoVegas (SE) $2.45 +17%
AU PlayUp $2.12 +1%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $2.04
Consensus127 picks · conf 99/99
Padilla 72
55 Bonfim
MMBSNM pick Padilla
How it endsmethod calls · Padilla · crowd line
KO/TKO 1 $12.60
Submission 1 $12.60
Decision 4 $3.15
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Padilla 0-0 VS 20-4 Bonfim
5'9" height 5'8"
155 lb weight 156 lb
74" reach 72"
30 age 30
Orthodox stance Orthodox
5.8 strikes landed / min 5.8
61% striking accuracy 54%
4.9 strikes absorbed / min 3.2
46% striking defence 70%
3.3 takedowns / 15 min 1.1
75% takedown accuracy 33%
0% takedown defence 76%
1.1 submissions / 15 min 0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market48% vs 41%
Consensus72 of 127 analysts
Sharpest anglePadilla by Decision — 4 of 6 method calls
Recommendation Back Padilla @ $2.45 · fair $2.10 +17% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
GM GLO MMA picks Chris Padilla VALUE “I'm seeing a rear naked choke for Chris Padilla.”
MM MMAFightingonSBN picks Chris Padilla “Fouright win streak at lightweight is. quietly flying under the radar. Chris Padilla.”
HZ Hank's War Zone picks Chris Padilla “there's a really good chance that Chris Padilla throws a stopped the fight.”
UC UFC - CELEBRITIES AND CLASSICS picks Chris Padilla “I have to favor Chris Padilla. I'll have to favor Chris Padilla after that.”
MK Morning Kombat picks Chris Padilla “Defi des despite the fact that Ismael Bonfim has been finished in two of his last three fights... oh, and Ismael Bonfim Bonfi missed weight by five pounds.”
RX RX picks Chris Padilla VALUE “I'm going to lean here with Chris Padilla, too. I think he is better than Ismael Bonfim.”
WP We Want Picks picks Ismael Bonfim “I think it's going to be Ismael Bonfim.”
MU MMA UNCENSORED picks Ismael Bonfim “And to go with Ismael Bonfim and I'm going”
MR MMA on the Rocks (MMA on the Rocks) picks Ismael Bonfim “I'm picking Ismael Bonfim.”
NA NarcoCopMMA picks Chris Padilla VALUE “I'll go with Chris Padilla plus 175.” $2.75
GI GiulianoArgenti picks Chris Padilla “I'm taking Chris Padilla”
MM MMAPREDICTIONGURU picks Chris Padilla “So, Chris Padilla is gets the victory over Chris Padilla.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Padilla0-0
W Bonfim KO/TKO · R2 Nov '25
W Herbert Decision · R3 Mar '25
W Zhu KO/TKO · R2 Sep '24
W Llontop Submission · R1 Apr '24
Bonfim20-4
L Padilla KO/TKO · R2 Nov '25
L Sadykhov KO/TKO · R1 Feb '25
W Pichel Decision · R3 May '24
L Denis Submission · R1 Jul '23
W McKinney KO/TKO · R2 Jan '23