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Bonfim vs BrownMain Card · Welterweight
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Padilla vs BonfimMain Card · Catchweight
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Simón vs BarcelosPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
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Amil vs EmmersPreliminary Card · Featherweight
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Hokit vs GimenisPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
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Johns vs MarcosPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
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Pennington vs GomesPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
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RB
Bonfim vs BrownMain Card · Welterweight
MS
JM
Schnell vs MoralesMain Card · Flyweight
MS
UM
Salikhov vs MedićMain Card · Welterweight
CP
IB
Padilla vs BonfimMain Card · Catchweight
RS
RB
Simón vs BarcelosPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
CD
MT
Duncan vs TulioMain Card · Middleweight
HA
JE
Amil vs EmmersPreliminary Card · Featherweight
MS
JC
Silva vs CavalcantiPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight
JH
MG
Hokit vs GimenisPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
MJ
DM
Johns vs MarcosPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
TP
DG
Pennington vs GomesPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
JM
ZR
McVey vs ReesePreliminary Card · Catchweight
BEST PRICE
We back
Padilla
over Bonfim · Catchweight
Our fair value$2.10
pays above fair
$2.45
Best prices · Padilla
Betfair Sportsbook · UK
$2.10
LeoVegas (SE) · EU
$2.45
Where to back Padilla
best price · region · EV vs fair $2.10
US
FanDuel
$2.08
-1%
UK
Betfair Sportsbook
$2.10
-0%
Betfair Sportsbook
$2.10
-0%
EU
LeoVegas (SE)
$2.45
+17%
LeoVegas (SE)
$2.45
+17%
AU
PlayUp
$2.12
+1%
PM
PM
Polymarket crowd exchange
$2.04
How it endsmethod calls · Padilla · crowd line
KO/TKO
1
$12.60
Submission
1
$12.60
Decision
4
$3.15
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Padilla 0-0
VS
20-4 Bonfim
5'9"
height
5'8"
155 lb
weight
156 lb
74"
reach
72"
30
age
30
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
5.8
strikes landed / min
5.8
61%
striking accuracy
54%
4.9
strikes absorbed / min
3.2
46%
striking defence
70%
3.3
takedowns / 15 min
1.1
75%
takedown accuracy
33%
0%
takedown defence
76%
1.1
submissions / 15 min
0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
Hit “Run deep research” to pull the latest from X and the news.
What the numbers say
Model vs market48% vs 41%
Consensus72 of 127 analysts
Sharpest anglePadilla by Decision — 4 of 6 method calls
Recommendation
Back Padilla @ $2.45 · fair $2.10
+17% EDGE
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
GM
GLO MMA picks Chris Padilla VALUE
“I'm seeing a rear naked choke for Chris Padilla.”
MM
MMAFightingonSBN picks Chris Padilla
“Fouright win streak at lightweight is. quietly flying under the radar. Chris Padilla.”
HZ
Hank's War Zone picks Chris Padilla
“there's a really good chance that Chris Padilla throws a stopped the fight.”
UC
UFC - CELEBRITIES AND CLASSICS picks Chris Padilla
“I have to favor Chris Padilla. I'll have to favor Chris Padilla after that.”
MK
Morning Kombat picks Chris Padilla
“Defi des despite the fact that Ismael Bonfim has been finished in two of his last three fights... oh, and Ismael Bonfim Bonfi missed weight by five pounds.”
RX
RX picks Chris Padilla VALUE
“I'm going to lean here with Chris Padilla, too. I think he is better than Ismael Bonfim.”
WP
We Want Picks picks Ismael Bonfim
“I think it's going to be Ismael Bonfim.”
MU
MMA UNCENSORED picks Ismael Bonfim
“And to go with Ismael Bonfim and I'm going”
MR
MMA on the Rocks (MMA on the Rocks) picks Ismael Bonfim
“I'm picking Ismael Bonfim.”
GI
GiulianoArgenti picks Chris Padilla
“I'm taking Chris Padilla”
MM
MMAPREDICTIONGURU picks Chris Padilla
“So, Chris Padilla is gets the victory over Chris Padilla.”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Padilla0-0
W
Bonfim
Nov '25
W
Herbert
Mar '25
W
Zhu
Sep '24
W
Llontop
Apr '24
Bonfim20-4
L
Padilla
Nov '25
L
Sadykhov
Feb '25
W
Pichel
May '24
L
Denis
Jul '23
W
McKinney
Jan '23